Tires, Nobel Prize, macro debates, and solar cells.

Garth Brazelton defends the tire tax as a Pigouvian tax. I'd be interested to see if there was any data to show that Chinese tires are significantly less safe than American tires. Since they both presumably have to meet some sort of standard, should we just make tougher standards? If Chinese tires are less safe than American tires, would the tax not apply to safe Chinese tires, or would the tax be repealed when Chinese tire makers improved their tires?

Tyler Cowen starts thinking about the Nobel Prize for Economics. I'm eager to see everyone's thoughts.

Krugman talks about freshwater economists while David Warsh says there isn't as much vitriol as we might think. Warsh links us to an interesting paper that thinks about 1978 macro (link to Thoma).

Solar energy is apparently getting off to a slow start. Overinvestment due to a subsidy combined with a recession led to dropping prices, whic wasn't good for the industry. Does that mean we'll see solar energy picking up again as the world recovers? I've been seeing more articles about solar-powered things anyways, so maybe China is picking up a large degree of the slack from Spain.

Solar power, education, inflation, and majors

China is really pushing the production of solar panels. Siemens has also invested a lot of money into solar power recently. I've heard people say that oil prices will only go up in the long term, but I wonder if energy prices will actually go down.

Some people talk about why the price of upper education has risen.

As the economy bottoms out, we look more towards inflation. With slow growth, I don't expect inflation to get out of control, though even if that were the case it seems to be a necessary condition for growth in this recovery period.

College students fret about their majors. I thought this has always been a problem for them, especially for liberal arts people.

Health care, global health care, job losses, love, and ham

Myths of health care reform. It seems like there are a lot of scare tactics.

While discussion on domestic health care policy is fierce, Ruth Levine reminds us about global health care policy.

Back here, job loss claims are slightly up, while the overall unemployment rate is down slightly. I'm hoping that we avoid 10%.

Love is worth over a quarter million dollars.

What would your bank do if you offered them wine and ham as collateral?

Good news on the recession, sugar, bubbles, and new homes.

A few pieces from Capital Gains and Games. Some thoughts on the unemployment numbers--getting worse slower isn't getting better. Still, I prefer getting worse slower. Still, the prospect that the unemployment rate won't hit 10% is great. The deficit would have been the same under Bush (or McCain) and is likely going to be less than originally forecast. So, it was largely unavoidable. Still, I hope that our money was put to good use.

A reduction in the supply of sugar is causing prices to increase. If there are profits to be made, then we'd expect other firms enter the market. Good sign for South American and African sugar farmers?

The Business Pundit speculates at the next possible bubble to burst. Gold seems a little far fetched to me, as I always thought of gold as a back-up place to store wealth, which means that it'd be more of an effect than a cause of speculation.

Felix Salmon reminds us that a home is not an investment as Krugman buys a new place. I've seen it argued that people thinking of homes as investments is a part of what caused the housing crisis.

Oil and gas prices, health care, university productivity, and Houston power rates

James Hamilton takes a look at oil and natural gas prices. Something has got to give.

PBS has a Frontline report comparing the health programs in five capitalist democracies around the world. Paul Krugman explains why health care can't be solved by the free market. Seems to me that health insurance suffers the tragedy of the commons.

Catherine Rampell at Economix reports on a measure of productivity of universities.

Houstonians: TXU is lowering their rates. They may still not be the lowest for you, but keep an eye out! How's that for price fluctuation?

Some news on the recession

Ritholtz on Feldstein's double-dip warning. Mark Perry has some good news. The Chicago Fed Index and the Confence Board's index are both up. Double dip or slow, long recovery? We have to wait and see. The way to see it, as long as housing continues to get better, and credit markets recover, I don't see how a double-dip is likely. Employment may double-dip, if they're decide that holding on to excess qualified workers will take too long to pay off.

Houston median home prices reach a record high.

Here's a look at the state-by-state change in per capita income. We're down, overall, but some states are doing okay!

Drea, at the Business Pundit, shows us five industries doing well during the recession.

Batteries, aid, old experiments, macroeconomics, and taxes.

Lithium ion batteries might start getting cheaper, as we may get a mass producer in the United States. Battery news excites me.

Felix Salmon wades into the developmental economics debate of the success and failure of aid, and is plugging a new book on the subject. I wonder what Easterly would say about the book.

Tim Harford talks about old experiments, and some efforts to rethink the studies.

Steve Chapman at reasononline takes on macroeconomists saying, essentially, that the field is very politicized, and this is partially a result of it being a less definite field.

Nancy Folbre thinks about why people who support raising taxes are wealthy. I think it's more about deeply ingrained ideologies. Though, it's strange that people on the lower end of the income spectrum aren't more strongly supporting their own taxes being lowered.

Krugman's history, South Africa, rational markets, HDMI cable, and crime trackers

Also from Newmark's Door, Krugman gets history wrong. Both people on the left and the right disagree with him, though I think that's kind of an empty statement.

Relatively good news for HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The infection rate has leveled off, with reductions in certain age groups. Still, South Africa has 5.5 million HIV-positive people.

Justin Fox gives a quick summary of the history of rational markets in the last 80 years, which is also a summary of his books.

Ezra Klein and Tyler Cowen seem to think that some traditional brick-and-mortar stores are not lowering their prices in their competitive markets. HDMI cable seems to be very expensive in stores, but online is available for next to nothing. Klein further comments that online shopping is a wealth transfer from those not comfortable with online shopping to those who are comfortable with online shopping. It seems to me that those comfortable with online shopping are in larger, more competitive markets. Brick-and-mortar stores cater to a different demographic than online stores. Moreover, I think that particularly in the case of 80% and 90+% discounts, online stores sell excess stock or used stock, rather than stock just recently received from a manufacturer. I admit these are conjectures, though.

ThinkMarkets provides some links to crime tracking websites, and neighborhood information websites.

Inflation, scalping, 100 resources, protectionism, and development

Free Exchange discusses the possibility of inflation as recovery comes. It seems to me that the argument is that once the recession starts to lessen, the effects of loose monetary policy will start to show, though I'm not sure why inflation will rear without the usual corresponding GDP growth. Typically, you'd think that banks spreading money around would boost GDP growth, and it'd be pretty hard to get around that.

Ticketmaster is trying to stop scalping, using paperless tickets.

Here are 100 useful resources.

Wow, this is pretty cool. The Global Trade Alert. It supposedly keeps track of all protectionist policies, worldwide.

Continuing on a previous story, Sachs v Easterly. Easterly seems to have the more nuanced position, while I feel Sachs is approaching the subject of aid money from a more political point of view. Specifically, Sachs is worried that an anti-aid position will lessen the amount of money that will go towards development goals. On the other hand, Easterly isn't against aid money, but sees it as ineffective due to problems in the field.

Michigan, foreign policy, Varian and Google, and food prices.

Might business be okay in Michigan? The Grand Rapids Press reports good news in Michigan for a machinery/furniture company, an AHL team, an advertising company, and a construction company. Michigan isn't all about cars--maybe some of those displaced auto workers will be able to find other work.

Obama makes the country a safer place, says National Security Advisor James Jones. New strategies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as strategically pulling troops out of Iraq are good policies, he reports, as opposed to Guantanamo, which created more enemies than were detained. He also says that North Korea isn't an immediate threat, and that Obama's "team of rivals" is working out well so far, with everyone being heard.

Wired highlights Varian and Google auctions. I've heard a lot about these auctions in the past year or two--maybe the idea is spreading? Hal Varian certainly has a cool job.

David Leonhardt shows us price changes in certain foods over time. Looks like healthy foods are getting relatively more expensive (though, fish and meat is doing okay!).

Wasting a recession, African aid, principles courses, housing, stock predictions, and Krugman.

Simon Johnson echoes an idea from Rahm Emanuel: Don't let a recession go to waste. The idea is, essentially, that a recession is a time where more people are willing to back big change. I'm not sure how I feel about this--I'd be happy if things changed for the better, but how do I know I can trust legislators? Should interest groups have an opportunity to push the country around, while we're down? That being said, the five points that Emanuel listed seem like good ones, and people seem to trust this administration much more than the previous one.

A FT discussion on Africa: Is Aid Working? It's an interesting discussion, and I'm of the opinion is that aid can work, but more than giving money, steps must be taken to ensure and enhance the effectiveness of aid.

Scott Beaulier relays a message from Greg Mankiw. Despite the recent events, economics principles courses won't change significantly. The groundwork that those classes lay stays the same, though graduate courses will likely see change in the fields of financial economics or public choice.

A couple on housing. Six years of housing price gains have been wiped away in three years, in real terms. CalculatedRisk has graphs on that, as well as the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios.

And a couple (more) on the recession: Political Calculations tries to predict changes in the stock market, based on recession probabilities. It should be interesting to watch June 16-23 and September 10-16. And, Krugman is somewhat optimistic in a recent statement, as he says the world economy is stabilizing. We've avoided catastrophe! Still, he frets about the nature of the recovery. I note this isn't getting more media coverage, like Krugman's previous, less optimistic predictions.

Asia, law, international trade, and health care

Asian economies are supposed to be the first ones to recover. I suppose that's not a surprise--lesser developed countries tend to have a higher GDP growth level, so a global recession is less likely to keep their growth rates negative.

Economics is respected in law. James Kwak thinks maybe lawyers shouldn't stick so closely to economic principles, or at least they should recognize its shortcomings. I don't advocate as drastic a view as James Kwak puts forth, but I do think it's important for lawyers to understand the limitations of using the Hand formula and of traditional economic analysis.

Dani Rodrik thinks about which sorts of trade liberalization policies will have the greatest positive impact. He says that we should open agricultural trade and increase quotas for highly skilled foreign workers.

Apparently, we can pay for universal health care using sensible cost-cutting practices.

CPI, developing nations, marriage, and Wolfram Alpha

Matt Nolan tells us not to confuse CPI growth with inflation. CPI is a bad indicator of the magnitude of inflation--besides, they measure different things.

Here's a vox article on trade advice for developing nations during a recession. Avoid protectionist policies. Um, I think they need more help than that.

Spendthrifts tend to marry tightwads, which contributes to marital conflict. Does this mean that, on average, couples make pretty good savings decisions? And, with less variance than single people?

Wolfram Alpha provides a new way to search for information. This looks like a really neat system, actually. It gets released this month, so check back to see it in action!

Hurricane claims, grocery stores, inventive cities, recession news, and Venezuela

2008 hurricane claims put Texas home insurance companies in the red. Ouch. Hurricanes continue to affect us. I guess whoever designed the hurricane insurance plans didn't know how much risk was actually involved, or those insurance companies didn't properly prepare themselves for such a situation.

Grocery stores are doing well during the recession.

Houston is one of the world's most inventive cities. We're pretty creative people! I don't think a lot of people believe this, though.

Productivity and labor costs are up. You might expect this from a recession, as companies try to focus on efficiency to weather the rough times.

Venezuela is seizing the assets of more oil service companies. I would have ended my operations there some time ago.

History, open data, auto industry, financial planning, bachelor's degrees, and gas prices

A new blog on economic history.

Hey, world bankers like open data too! Those are great guys.

Speaking of which, Hal Varian used Google Trends to make better forecasts.

James Hamilton is still on the case, reporting about the declining auto industry.

ESPlanner, a long term financial planning website, though the site isn't always working.

Some community colleges offer bachelor's degrees. I like that degrees are becoming less expensive, but they shouldn't be easier to get. This is the classic Spence problem.

Mark Perry gives us a look at real gas prices. It looks like a falling trend since 1919, with some big spikes thrown in. And, note that the spikes take us to about back to the 1919 level anyways.

Agriculture, Libertarianism, TED talk, law, city house prices, and Google

Some stylized facts about agricultural subsidies. It looks like a very inefficient market. Again, no surprise there.

Henry Kaufman explains how Libertarianism hindered the Fed. While I don't agree with all of it, it raises some good points, I think.

A couple of very interesting pieces from Marginal Revolution. I recommend you read them. Alex Tabarrok gave a TED talk, and Tyler Cowen discusses the field of Law and Economics.

Here's some Case-Shiller city data on housing prices. They're still dropping, though it looks like we're nearing normal levels in some places. Unfortunately, there's still likely more dropping to happen, due to a super saturated market.

On a different sort of note, now Google offers some searchable public data. I hope they greatly expand this.

Chile, debates, housing, oil and recessions, and cognitive skills

Rodrik talks about the Chilean Minister of Finance. He saved during the boom, although it was unpopular, and is now spending the massive savings. Why don't more countries do this?

Alex Tabarrok talks about the debates at Intelligence Squared. I like the concept of the website, though. Get experts to debate issues and provide podcasts. People vote on winners.

Jon Lansner talks about housing, via CR. Prices should bottom out late next year.

James Hamilton points out the connection between oil price spikes and recessions. That's really interesting research.

Some research shows that people with higher cognitive skills perform better economically. Moreover, to the extent that this is a genetic trait, evolution may play a factor in separating people with of cognitive skill levels.

Development, Obama's international policies, education, Microsoft, LPB, and the CBO.

Some research on the impact of the financial crisis on developing countries. Menzie Chinn breaks down the first chapter of a piece from the IMF.

Mankiw celebrates that Obama has improved his platform on international economic issues.

The US apparently spends the most money per grade point in education. Solutions? Why not figure out where the most bang-for-buck comes from, and restructure spending?

Some interesting numbers behind Microsoft. Could they be losing their massive market share? Maybe, but they'll still be a big player.

Kotlikoff and Leamer propose Limited Purpose Banking. Banks wouldn't hold assets, and would only borrow to fund mutual fund operations. What ever happened to depository institutions?

The CBO announces its panel of economic advisors.

Oil prices, health care

Mark Perry tells us that oil prices are going to stay low for quite some time. I'll admit that he also called oil prices going down about as low as they did, and I didn't think it'd be quite as extreme (if I recall correctly, the actual was somewhere very close to the average of our estimates), and I'll also admit that I don't consider myself an expert in the oil industry, but I don't see the cycle he mentions as everlasting. Eventually, I think oil will be priced out of or nearly out of the market. Since by all estimates there's a limited amount of oil in the world, and it's non-renewable, alternatives must eventually dominate.

Reinhardt gives a health care reform option, without being quite socialized. It seems to me that there are a number of feasible options, but the trick is finding any that are politically popular. I suppose it's all in bipartisanship and PR.

Consumer spending, demand, and markups

Carter Dougherty at Economix mentions that we've been seeing a decline in consumer spending during this recession--an historical oddity. I read once that consumer spending doesn't change much because most of what we buy, we have to buy. We don't buy a washing machine or a sandwich because we merely want these goods, we buy them because we need clean clothes or are hungry. So much for that idea! As credit increases what we are able to buy, we buy proportionally fewer necessities. When credit dries up, we have fewer means with which to buy stuff. Credit causes consumption to be more volative.

Andrew Cassel reports that the cause of the 2008 oil spike may have been demand expectations in developing countries. Developing countries were growing much faster than expected, which caused future demand expectations to become very high.

Mark Perry reports on the markup on iPod devices. iSuppli is a firm that takes apart devices and estimates how much the components would cost, to try to estimate the cost of making such a device.