Google, unemployment, sports, and loans

More data on Google! This from the World Bank.

Here's a chart showing the duration of unemployment, for the unemployed.

Some Houston sports hotshots (not those) talk about how their sports businesses are going.

Angry Bear has an interesting graph of the number of loans given by banks. I'd like to see the graph go back a few (maybe seven) more years.

Job Advice, Saving Money, and the Planet

Jon Brooks gets a job! And this is how he did it. Job seeking advice is abundant this time of business cycle.

Also, remember that you need to save money for retirement. After you find a job, that's something you need to think about. That way, you can become the richest man in the world.

I can't say that I agree, but a couple of ecologists are worried about how our current economic model interacts with the world. I can't say I agree, but it's worth thinking about, certainly. Change isn't necessarily a bad thing.

EIA, map of job losses, new wave of research, and Caterpillar

Env-econ re: BCA vs EIA, OK?

This is a very interesting map of job losses and gains around the country since 2004. It'd be nice if it showed percentage loss/gain rather than net, but it's still illuminating, I think.

Will Google Wave change how research is done?

Caterpillar sees "encouraging signs" of economic recovery. The construction industry, many say, is a pretty good leading indicator.

Unemployment rates, Shiller on housing, urban data, and soccer.

The FRB Cleveland again, this time telling us about alternative unemployment rates.

Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, tells us about the housing market. Seems like people are more rosy now about their long term investment prospects.

Matthew Kahn talks about possibilities with urban data. If we could look at power bills, we could determine whether people have high-power consumption items, of if they're just being wasteful. I'm sure there might be a number of interesting uses of the data, if privacy issues could be resolved.

The economics of soccer. How do I get to do that?

Dr. Doom/Roubini, public health care, mancession, and Cash for Clunkers.

Dr. Doom's at it again. I don't share his opinion about the growth "since March." I think the bottom was a bit too low, and at least some of the later stock growth was corrective.

The Boston Globe explains how a public health care option would work in pretty easy terms.

Free Exchange picks up Chris Swann, saying that men aren't necessarily the hardest hit during this recession.

The FRB Cleveland shows us some of the effects of the Cash for Clunkers program. I'd like to see their numbers on slightly longer-term effects.

Obama, unemployment, financial modelling, and a book

The New Yorker highlights Obama's economic staff. Romer, Summers, Orszag, Geithner, and Bernstein.

Also from the New Yorker, John Cassidy talks about the unemployment numbers and what we might expect in the future.

Mike Rorty makes a version of an argument that I made before. I'm eager to see what interesting papers will come out, though.

I recommend you read John Quiggin's book snippets. They're good reads.

Recession, employment, risk modelling, and multipliers

The IMF says that things aren't so bad anymore! They're seemingly less bad than previously thought. They credit monetary and fiscal policy, apparently (I wonder how that'll go in the macro debates?). Feel free to check out the video of the press conference and the actual report.

Robert Reich makes sure we know what the employment numbers really mean.

The Baseline Scenario tells us about the problems of risk modelling. VaR = bad? I think people are being too harsh, though a company shouldn't use one model and nothing else to evaluate risk.

Via Thoma, Krugman talks about multipliers. He says 1.5 is a good estimate for right now.

Job search, emotions, and graphs.

The average number of weeks in a job search has slightly dropped. 25 weeks is still six months, though. And, remember this is an average. 50% will find a job sooner, and 50% will find a job later.

Calculated Risks shows us some graphs on the projected unemployment rates compared with actual unemployment rates, and with the diffusion index, which roughly measures how widespread job losses or gains are. Things aren't great, but they're not as bad as they could be or have been.

Emotions and the economy. Interesting article. How much could smiling help the recession?

Job openings are at record lows, and the jobless rate by weeks unemployed. This needs to turn around, and fast! In most of the country it isn't getting worse, I suppose.

Google,, unemployment and stocks, wages, and an interactive map

Google has more data to easily peruse through! Mmm, data...

Unemployment is up, but apparently the stock markets like it. 9.7%... after two months almost flat. Who knows where this is going? Will it hit 10%? Still, this is better than the 13% projected earlier in the year by some.

Average hourly wages are up again. Mind you that the unemployment rate for people with less education is higher than for people with more education. Also, retail isn't doing well, still. Lower wage people just can't find work, while experienced workers are being held on to.

Here's a neat interactive map showing foreclosure rates, unemployment rates, and household income. Data's good, but it's even better when it's easy to look through.

The rich, Bernanke, unemployment, and cell phones

Over the past two years, the rich have not gotten richer, ending a 30-year rise.

Bernanke is apparently optimistic on near-term growth. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, I think. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic, it seems.

Unemployment rose in 26 states.

Another development article: the solar-powered cell phone. I always thought heat was detrimental to the lifespan of electronics--though, I guess a solar-powered cell phone makes more sense than a wind powered or hydroelectric cell phone. Still, there are small solar cells you can buy to charge small electronics. Why not just replace the car charger (or whatever) with a solar charger?

Health care, global health care, job losses, love, and ham

Myths of health care reform. It seems like there are a lot of scare tactics.

While discussion on domestic health care policy is fierce, Ruth Levine reminds us about global health care policy.

Back here, job loss claims are slightly up, while the overall unemployment rate is down slightly. I'm hoping that we avoid 10%.

Love is worth over a quarter million dollars.

What would your bank do if you offered them wine and ham as collateral?

Job markets, mortgage default rate, credit, and spending

Insight's best and worst job markets. It's nice that the page is continually updated, too.

13%? That's a very high mortgage default rate. And it's not supposed to peak until at least a year from now. CalculatedRisk tells us that the problem is growing to fixed rate prime loans. Yikes! That last link also shows rates per state.

Banks are cutting credit limits for 58 million card holders. I've also heard that they're raising the rates that they charge companies who use their credit card services for payments. This sort of thing isn't a surprise, due to recent credit card reform, and this is probably a good sign.

Here's a neat graphic: how the average consumer spends his paycheck. It's actually a "consumer unit," which is apparently about 2.5 people with 1.3 earners.

Good news on the recession, sugar, bubbles, and new homes.

A few pieces from Capital Gains and Games. Some thoughts on the unemployment numbers--getting worse slower isn't getting better. Still, I prefer getting worse slower. Still, the prospect that the unemployment rate won't hit 10% is great. The deficit would have been the same under Bush (or McCain) and is likely going to be less than originally forecast. So, it was largely unavoidable. Still, I hope that our money was put to good use.

A reduction in the supply of sugar is causing prices to increase. If there are profits to be made, then we'd expect other firms enter the market. Good sign for South American and African sugar farmers?

The Business Pundit speculates at the next possible bubble to burst. Gold seems a little far fetched to me, as I always thought of gold as a back-up place to store wealth, which means that it'd be more of an effect than a cause of speculation.

Felix Salmon reminds us that a home is not an investment as Krugman buys a new place. I've seen it argued that people thinking of homes as investments is a part of what caused the housing crisis.

Unemployment rate <10%, income distribution, IV, the recession's end, and unemployment again

Nate Silver makes the claim that the unemployment rate won't hit 10%. Bold, considering there are many expecting it to go well above 10%.

People in the top .01% have 6% of the nation's income, the highest ever. It's interesting how it was so low for so long.

The Economist has an interesting article on instrumental variables. The gist: they attain more accurate answers to less broad questions. Instrumental variables are tools, however. We should never rely on one tool in our toolbox--that has always led us astray. That's just like articles bashing macroeconomics due to "bad" econometric forecasting.

According to this graph, a lot of economists seem to think that the recession is over. That's the WSJ, though, so take that with a grain of salt. The more interesting part, in my opinion, is that the unemployment predictions, on average, don't hit 10%. More predictions here.

Taxes and unemployment, the recession, health care, income, and advertising.

Krugman reports that there is no correlation between taxes and the unemployment rate. Looks like, if anything, there might be a negative correlation.

Though the specifics vary slightly, things are looking a little better now for Krugman and Hamilton.

Health care is a pretty tough issue, politically.

Political Calculations has data on how your income will increase each year.

Karl Smith continues discussion on the advertising industry. I think he's wrong when he says that people aren't easily swayed--though, they may not be so easily swayed as advertisers may think. I think people can be swayed to at least try a new cereal, even if it costs 20 cents more. They may not be swayed in buying a car. When you're talking about relatively cheap, quickly consumed goods, advertising can be powerful. Advertising may actually convince us to try a new restaurant, or a new brand of deodorant.

Healthcare, financial crisis, stimulus, and jobs.

Instead of the UK and Canada, Jonathan Cohn compares our future healthcare system to France and the Netherlands--whose plans he says is actually more similar to our proposed plans. It's a worthwhile read, I think.

Justin Fox points to an investment banker who says that the fault of the financial crisis should fall onto the people who bought toxic assets, not the people who created them. They should never believe that you can make a return on a riskless security. I still think there were many people at fault--after all, the true risk was not properly assessed by ratings agencies.

The French think they've done fiscal stimulus better than the Americans. Could be. Certainly, our more "free" system carries with it more risk and uncertainty. It's harder to get effective government action done here.

Catherine Rampell at Economix points out that the problem with the job market is a hiring slowdown, not layoffs.

Bernanke, job growth, healthcare, and fairness

FreeExchange voices their support of Bernanke. I think there hasn't been enough air time given to exactly what he has done and how it has helped the economy in the past year. In a similar vein, the NY Fed has provided a timeline of the financial crisis.

Michael Mandel reports on job growth over the past ten years. The graphs certainly do highlight the stark picture. Outside of healthcare, education, and the government, no sector has grown. Wow.

Donald Marron says that health is an R&D problem. There are a variety of problems with the current system, and a variety of solutions, and we're not sure how effective each solution would be. Marron seems to think we should take baby steps, and evaluate the progress of solutions as we go. An economist who wants more data? Shocking.

Fairness in economics. National economic policy isn't based solely on economic principles, nor are traditional mathematic economic principles the only factors that affect the economy. How people feel about their individual situations also affects their economic behaviors, including how fair they feel they are being treated. In short, we should take some lessons from sociology and psychology. Of course, this harkens back to a famous Keynes quote:

"The study of economics does not seem to require any specialized gifts of an unusually high order. Is it not, intellectually regarded, a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy or pure science? An easy subject at which few excel! The paradox finds its explanation, perhaps, in that the master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular in terms of the general and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature of his institutions must lie entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood; as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near to earth as a politician."

Finding a job, human rights, and Mish's Google talk

Barbara Kiviat tells us how we can find jobs using social networking sites. Essentially, if more people knowing you're looking for a job helps, then social networking sites get the word out quickly to a lot of people who can vouch for you. I don't usually blog on this sort of article, but I think it's interesting how technology affects the job market.

On another issue I don't usually blog about--here, particularly--the SCSU Scholars argue that a problem with poverty being called a "human right violation" is that such a claim requires identifiable violators to violate rigid laws. One violates a right, or one does not violate a right, there is no inbetween. In the case of poverty, the so-called 'poverty line' is unclear, and there are no clear violators. It's an interesting argument, but my first thoughts are that prejudice also comes in degrees (arguably, a reason that it still exists in places where we consider ourselves to have moved past that), and that institutionalized corruption is largely to blame for poverty in developing nations. Institutionalized corruption is difficult to fight, though, especially when they're, almost by definition, better financed than those who would fight.

Mish gives a talk at Google on the state of the economy. Among other things, he predicts we'll dip into another recession. I've heard some people predict a second or a third dip into recession, but I haven't heard a lot of explanation for it. I think he's off base at times, but it's an interesting talk.

Michigan, foreign policy, Varian and Google, and food prices.

Might business be okay in Michigan? The Grand Rapids Press reports good news in Michigan for a machinery/furniture company, an AHL team, an advertising company, and a construction company. Michigan isn't all about cars--maybe some of those displaced auto workers will be able to find other work.

Obama makes the country a safer place, says National Security Advisor James Jones. New strategies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as strategically pulling troops out of Iraq are good policies, he reports, as opposed to Guantanamo, which created more enemies than were detained. He also says that North Korea isn't an immediate threat, and that Obama's "team of rivals" is working out well so far, with everyone being heard.

Wired highlights Varian and Google auctions. I've heard a lot about these auctions in the past year or two--maybe the idea is spreading? Hal Varian certainly has a cool job.

David Leonhardt shows us price changes in certain foods over time. Looks like healthy foods are getting relatively more expensive (though, fish and meat is doing okay!).

Africa, college gards, unemployment and stocks, children, and cheap condos.

William Easterly challenges Sachs in development issues, pointing out problems with Sachs's arguments, and problems in aid money. I think Easterly's position is often overstated by others--Easterly doesn't think that we shouldn't provide aid to Africa, necessarily. Easterly, instead, recognizes that much aid to Africa is wasted, and helping Africa requires some non-monetary reform.

Mike Shedlock tells us how hard the job market is for new college graduates. This isn't anything new, I think, but it is important. We know the job market is bad, Mike just tells us that it's also bad for recent college grads.

Felix Salmon shows us that unemployment and stocks are more coincident than we may have thought. I'd like to see more historical data, though it'd be understandable for unemployment to be more coincident with large changes in stock markets, unemployment being a less sensitive indicator, and both potentially being affected by other economic phenomena. Still, I'm not sure I buy it. The decline in the stock market from 2007 - 2008 alone seems within normal fluctuations and doesn't quite justify the rising unemployment rate.

Nancy Folbre warns us that kids may be the most severely effected by the recession. Parents' job loss can lead to instability in the home, which hurts education and hurts physical health due to lower quality food.

The amazing Tata is making $8000 condos. I wonder if this sort of thing will catch on in other parts of the world, as land becomes more scarce. Certainly, I would think this sort of thing would be popular among college students.