Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Michigan, foreign policy, Varian and Google, and food prices.

Might business be okay in Michigan? The Grand Rapids Press reports good news in Michigan for a machinery/furniture company, an AHL team, an advertising company, and a construction company. Michigan isn't all about cars--maybe some of those displaced auto workers will be able to find other work.

Obama makes the country a safer place, says National Security Advisor James Jones. New strategies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as strategically pulling troops out of Iraq are good policies, he reports, as opposed to Guantanamo, which created more enemies than were detained. He also says that North Korea isn't an immediate threat, and that Obama's "team of rivals" is working out well so far, with everyone being heard.

Wired highlights Varian and Google auctions. I've heard a lot about these auctions in the past year or two--maybe the idea is spreading? Hal Varian certainly has a cool job.

David Leonhardt shows us price changes in certain foods over time. Looks like healthy foods are getting relatively more expensive (though, fish and meat is doing okay!).

Monday, June 1, 2009

Africa, college gards, unemployment and stocks, children, and cheap condos.

William Easterly challenges Sachs in development issues, pointing out problems with Sachs's arguments, and problems in aid money. I think Easterly's position is often overstated by others--Easterly doesn't think that we shouldn't provide aid to Africa, necessarily. Easterly, instead, recognizes that much aid to Africa is wasted, and helping Africa requires some non-monetary reform.

Mike Shedlock tells us how hard the job market is for new college graduates. This isn't anything new, I think, but it is important. We know the job market is bad, Mike just tells us that it's also bad for recent college grads.

Felix Salmon shows us that unemployment and stocks are more coincident than we may have thought. I'd like to see more historical data, though it'd be understandable for unemployment to be more coincident with large changes in stock markets, unemployment being a less sensitive indicator, and both potentially being affected by other economic phenomena. Still, I'm not sure I buy it. The decline in the stock market from 2007 - 2008 alone seems within normal fluctuations and doesn't quite justify the rising unemployment rate.

Nancy Folbre warns us that kids may be the most severely effected by the recession. Parents' job loss can lead to instability in the home, which hurts education and hurts physical health due to lower quality food.

The amazing Tata is making $8000 condos. I wonder if this sort of thing will catch on in other parts of the world, as land becomes more scarce. Certainly, I would think this sort of thing would be popular among college students.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Wasting a recession, African aid, principles courses, housing, stock predictions, and Krugman.

Simon Johnson echoes an idea from Rahm Emanuel: Don't let a recession go to waste. The idea is, essentially, that a recession is a time where more people are willing to back big change. I'm not sure how I feel about this--I'd be happy if things changed for the better, but how do I know I can trust legislators? Should interest groups have an opportunity to push the country around, while we're down? That being said, the five points that Emanuel listed seem like good ones, and people seem to trust this administration much more than the previous one.

A FT discussion on Africa: Is Aid Working? It's an interesting discussion, and I'm of the opinion is that aid can work, but more than giving money, steps must be taken to ensure and enhance the effectiveness of aid.

Scott Beaulier relays a message from Greg Mankiw. Despite the recent events, economics principles courses won't change significantly. The groundwork that those classes lay stays the same, though graduate courses will likely see change in the fields of financial economics or public choice.

A couple on housing. Six years of housing price gains have been wiped away in three years, in real terms. CalculatedRisk has graphs on that, as well as the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios.

And a couple (more) on the recession: Political Calculations tries to predict changes in the stock market, based on recession probabilities. It should be interesting to watch June 16-23 and September 10-16. And, Krugman is somewhat optimistic in a recent statement, as he says the world economy is stabilizing. We've avoided catastrophe! Still, he frets about the nature of the recovery. I note this isn't getting more media coverage, like Krugman's previous, less optimistic predictions.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Asia, law, international trade, and health care

Asian economies are supposed to be the first ones to recover. I suppose that's not a surprise--lesser developed countries tend to have a higher GDP growth level, so a global recession is less likely to keep their growth rates negative.

Economics is respected in law. James Kwak thinks maybe lawyers shouldn't stick so closely to economic principles, or at least they should recognize its shortcomings. I don't advocate as drastic a view as James Kwak puts forth, but I do think it's important for lawyers to understand the limitations of using the Hand formula and of traditional economic analysis.

Dani Rodrik thinks about which sorts of trade liberalization policies will have the greatest positive impact. He says that we should open agricultural trade and increase quotas for highly skilled foreign workers.

Apparently, we can pay for universal health care using sensible cost-cutting practices.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

CPI, developing nations, marriage, and Wolfram Alpha

Matt Nolan tells us not to confuse CPI growth with inflation. CPI is a bad indicator of the magnitude of inflation--besides, they measure different things.

Here's a vox article on trade advice for developing nations during a recession. Avoid protectionist policies. Um, I think they need more help than that.

Spendthrifts tend to marry tightwads, which contributes to marital conflict. Does this mean that, on average, couples make pretty good savings decisions? And, with less variance than single people?

Wolfram Alpha provides a new way to search for information. This looks like a really neat system, actually. It gets released this month, so check back to see it in action!

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Credit rating, soda tax, education, and political definitions

Free Exchange wonders what we should do about credit rating agencies. Should we have more competition to ensure better, more reliable ratings? Or, will that cause people to just shop around for ratings?

Tim Haab talks about a soda tax, and quizzes us on it. Personally, I wouldn't mind swallowing the three cents per twelve ounces (pardon the pun).

Newmark's Door points to a paper that emphasizes the importance of education in helping low-wage workers. Really, this surprises no one, but it should continue to get airtime as long as there aren't many educational options to low-wage workers.

William Easterly tries to apply more broad definitions of "liberal" and "conservative" to US politics--definitions which hold more internationally. Really, I think this isn't important. In the US, "liberal" and "conservative" are more titles than descriptive adjectives. Though it's good to be aware of what the terms actually mean, it's also good to be aware that the real definitions don't apply.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Maternity leave, Jamaica, Zimbabwe, the world, Venezuela, and the US federal budget

The Economic Policy Institute points out that the United States is severely lacking in maternity leave benefits. I wonder how that affects our national birth rate.

I've heard a lot about problems in Jamaica recently--I was surprised, and I think this article reflects why I was surprised. Socialism doesn't work.

The IMF provides an update on Zimbabwe. As you might expect, things aren't going so well there.

Simon Johnson reminds us that the rest of the world matters, too. Since the US economy is 20-25% of world output, they have an impact on us.

Speaking of the rest of the world, there's apparently some research showing how Venezuela's Chavez has hurt his opposition. This isn't a surprise to those who have been following Venezuela, but it's nice to see the research.

Lastly, the Obama Administration takes a jab at trimming the federal budget.