Graphs, Krugman/DeLong, inflation, and psychology

The recession in graphs. Felix Salmon points us to a bunch of graphs comparing the current recession to previous recessions. It's nice to see all of these together.

Krugman thinks about some notes from DeLong. I think they're interesting reads, though a bit rough.

The Fed is not concerned about falling inflation due to too much slack in production. This seems like a very AD/AS argument, and one that supports the idea of a prolonged recovery. I wonder what they think about the possibility of dipping into another recession.

There's an argument for psychology to be as accurate a science as medicine. I can't say I'm surprised, though I think psychology gets a bad rap. The story here is that psychological correlation coefficients were considered weak, when values of .3 were given, when this is actually a stronger value than "good" values in medical experimentation.

The internet, market design, and Clive Granger

A recent report tries to capture the economic impact of the internet in the United States. In short, $300 billion and 3.1 million jobs. That doesn't take into account the social aspect, either, and how the internet has shaped the job market. As massive as the reported number is, it possibly understates the real impact of the internet.

In a similar vein to a past article on Varian, David Warsh thinks about economic engineers in the field of game theory and market design. The boom of auction theory combined with the economic impact of the internet makes for a large impact of relatively recent economics. There are a lot of really interesting examples of market design in the real world, and I think more recent events will only serve to highlight practical and empirical applications of economics.

I apparently recently missed the death of econometrics giant Clive Granger.

Krugman's history, South Africa, rational markets, HDMI cable, and crime trackers

Also from Newmark's Door, Krugman gets history wrong. Both people on the left and the right disagree with him, though I think that's kind of an empty statement.

Relatively good news for HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The infection rate has leveled off, with reductions in certain age groups. Still, South Africa has 5.5 million HIV-positive people.

Justin Fox gives a quick summary of the history of rational markets in the last 80 years, which is also a summary of his books.

Ezra Klein and Tyler Cowen seem to think that some traditional brick-and-mortar stores are not lowering their prices in their competitive markets. HDMI cable seems to be very expensive in stores, but online is available for next to nothing. Klein further comments that online shopping is a wealth transfer from those not comfortable with online shopping to those who are comfortable with online shopping. It seems to me that those comfortable with online shopping are in larger, more competitive markets. Brick-and-mortar stores cater to a different demographic than online stores. Moreover, I think that particularly in the case of 80% and 90+% discounts, online stores sell excess stock or used stock, rather than stock just recently received from a manufacturer. I admit these are conjectures, though.

ThinkMarkets provides some links to crime tracking websites, and neighborhood information websites.

Inflation, scalping, 100 resources, protectionism, and development

Free Exchange discusses the possibility of inflation as recovery comes. It seems to me that the argument is that once the recession starts to lessen, the effects of loose monetary policy will start to show, though I'm not sure why inflation will rear without the usual corresponding GDP growth. Typically, you'd think that banks spreading money around would boost GDP growth, and it'd be pretty hard to get around that.

Ticketmaster is trying to stop scalping, using paperless tickets.

Here are 100 useful resources.

Wow, this is pretty cool. The Global Trade Alert. It supposedly keeps track of all protectionist policies, worldwide.

Continuing on a previous story, Sachs v Easterly. Easterly seems to have the more nuanced position, while I feel Sachs is approaching the subject of aid money from a more political point of view. Specifically, Sachs is worried that an anti-aid position will lessen the amount of money that will go towards development goals. On the other hand, Easterly isn't against aid money, but sees it as ineffective due to problems in the field.

Finding a job, human rights, and Mish's Google talk

Barbara Kiviat tells us how we can find jobs using social networking sites. Essentially, if more people knowing you're looking for a job helps, then social networking sites get the word out quickly to a lot of people who can vouch for you. I don't usually blog on this sort of article, but I think it's interesting how technology affects the job market.

On another issue I don't usually blog about--here, particularly--the SCSU Scholars argue that a problem with poverty being called a "human right violation" is that such a claim requires identifiable violators to violate rigid laws. One violates a right, or one does not violate a right, there is no inbetween. In the case of poverty, the so-called 'poverty line' is unclear, and there are no clear violators. It's an interesting argument, but my first thoughts are that prejudice also comes in degrees (arguably, a reason that it still exists in places where we consider ourselves to have moved past that), and that institutionalized corruption is largely to blame for poverty in developing nations. Institutionalized corruption is difficult to fight, though, especially when they're, almost by definition, better financed than those who would fight.

Mish gives a talk at Google on the state of the economy. Among other things, he predicts we'll dip into another recession. I've heard some people predict a second or a third dip into recession, but I haven't heard a lot of explanation for it. I think he's off base at times, but it's an interesting talk.

Education, Google monopoly, racism, and behavioral economics

CalculatedRisk has graphs on unemployment rates and wages for different education levels. That things are tough for everyone isn't a surprise, nor is it a surprise that lower education levels are worse off. The degree is pretty striking, though.

Donald Marron lists three defenses Google can use in anti-trust cases. Not only is being a monopolist legal, but Google has a claim on not being a monopoly (in my opinion, the first and third reasons are the strongest ones).

David Henderson argues that free markets reduce racism by making the discriminators bear the cost of their prejudice. That is, if you refuse to do business with a certain type of person, then you're limiting the scope of your own business. On the other hand, if you're willing to do business with anyone, then you can make more money.

Geoff Riley offers his introduction to behavioral economics.

Clintonomics, macroeconomics, market research, and my search engine

An interview with Bill Clinton was too long, so the section on the economy was cut. Economix has it. It's pretty interesting to see Clinton's take on the situation, and he addresses the different arguments pretty well. Many have remarked that not only is this an interesting read, but it's also strange to hear an ex-president critique himself.

Matthew Yglesias continues the discussion of what's wrong with macroeconomics, mentioning that model which don't contain micro foundations are not considered. The microeconomic foundations provide a lot of useful ways to think about macroeconomics, I think, such that it seems logical that there should be a strong relationship between the two.

Rosengren, the head of the FRB-Boston, is calling for more research in markets, and their relationships to the economy as a whole. He points out that regardless of predicting the crisis, once the crisis was upon us, many forecasters mispredicted the size and length of the recession. This recession was of a different nature of those in the past, and we need to understand it better.

Oh, and I put together a custom Google search of economics blogs, with a few foreign policy ones thrown in. Not only is it accessible at that link, but it's also on my sidebar here now. Enjoy!