Thursday, April 30, 2009

Sumner, World Bank, global recession, GDP, the auto industry, and education.

Scott Sumner with an excellent post covering macroeconomics, democrats being called socialists, soaps promoting liberal values, and Tyler Cowen. As is normal on Sumner's blog, the post is quite long, but he makes a lot of great points. Of course, I don't agree with him on the causes of the current recession, I take a more moderate view, I think.

Geo, a map of World Bank development projects. There are some very good, interesting maps there, if you're interested in international aid.

The St. Louis Fed releases some data on how the US is faring compared to other countries.

Even though Wednesday's GDP report was pretty bad, there are some silver linings. For example, the part of GDP that did the worst was the lagging indicators--the leading indicators weren't quite so bad. So, a turnaround may be in sight.

An interesting discussion: does America need the auto industry? Some pretty smart people take a stab at the question. Another NYT "debate" on education reform.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Agriculture, Libertarianism, TED talk, law, city house prices, and Google

Some stylized facts about agricultural subsidies. It looks like a very inefficient market. Again, no surprise there.

Henry Kaufman explains how Libertarianism hindered the Fed. While I don't agree with all of it, it raises some good points, I think.

A couple of very interesting pieces from Marginal Revolution. I recommend you read them. Alex Tabarrok gave a TED talk, and Tyler Cowen discusses the field of Law and Economics.

Here's some Case-Shiller city data on housing prices. They're still dropping, though it looks like we're nearing normal levels in some places. Unfortunately, there's still likely more dropping to happen, due to a super saturated market.

On a different sort of note, now Google offers some searchable public data. I hope they greatly expand this.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Stress tests, immigration, trade balances, R&D

A basic explanation of the bank stress tests. Apparently, most of the banks are doing well.

Would legalizing immigrants improve the economy? I don't think this is a tough question for most economists, though they'd probably disagree on the degree to which it would help.

Some interest graphs on US trade. The trade balance is improving very quickly, helping the dollar, and lowering import prices. Menzie Chinn with a more advanced econometric analysis. I guess we'll see how this plays out in GDP forecasts.

On news of Obama announcing he wants to raise R&D spending, here's a graph showing R&D spending as a percentage of GDP, for the US and some other places. I'd be curious to see a longer term graph. It looks like the US spends very little on R&D, as a percentage of GDP, compared to other countries. I've seen research saying that government R&D isn't very effective, but if economic growth is tied to technological growth (which few economists diagree), then increasing R&D spending sounds like a good idea, in general.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Chile, debates, housing, oil and recessions, and cognitive skills

Rodrik talks about the Chilean Minister of Finance. He saved during the boom, although it was unpopular, and is now spending the massive savings. Why don't more countries do this?

Alex Tabarrok talks about the debates at Intelligence Squared. I like the concept of the website, though. Get experts to debate issues and provide podcasts. People vote on winners.

Jon Lansner talks about housing, via CR. Prices should bottom out late next year.

James Hamilton points out the connection between oil price spikes and recessions. That's really interesting research.

Some research shows that people with higher cognitive skills perform better economically. Moreover, to the extent that this is a genetic trait, evolution may play a factor in separating people with of cognitive skill levels.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Development, Obama's international policies, education, Microsoft, LPB, and the CBO.

Some research on the impact of the financial crisis on developing countries. Menzie Chinn breaks down the first chapter of a piece from the IMF.

Mankiw celebrates that Obama has improved his platform on international economic issues.

The US apparently spends the most money per grade point in education. Solutions? Why not figure out where the most bang-for-buck comes from, and restructure spending?

Some interesting numbers behind Microsoft. Could they be losing their massive market share? Maybe, but they'll still be a big player.

Kotlikoff and Leamer propose Limited Purpose Banking. Banks wouldn't hold assets, and would only borrow to fund mutual fund operations. What ever happened to depository institutions?

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Life expectancy, displaced auto workers, solar energy, and the Clark Medal

Having friends increases your life expectancy. I guess it's not much of a surprise, considering stress decreases your life expectancy. Parents don't have an effect. Sorry, mom.

Auto and manufacturing workers can get an accelerated bachelor's degree. This sort of thing should be much more common. Haven't we had a shortage of teachers, too? There are lots of places for these workers to go.

Texas State Senators have approved a $500 million solar energy bill. I'm glad to hear we're not just focusing on wind.

The John Bates Clark Medal gets awarded this Friday. Exciting!

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Local stuff, business models, infrastructure

Unsurprisingly, the economy is the top concern for Houstonians. The Harris County Sheriff wants federal stimulus money for a helicopter, a surveillance van, eight machine guns for their boats, and some other stuff. Is that really necessary? Not only do machine guns not provide jobs, but who exactly are they going to shoot? Is that really in their jurisdiction? Will that keep Harris County safe? Galveston is considering bringing in gambling. I wonder what studies there are to show the negative effects of casinos for a neighborhood or area. I suppose Nevada does casinos pretty well. Houston's job losses increased, though unemployment held constant. Dr. Barton Smith gives some commentary, though to clarify one point--he projects Houston will lose 56,000 more jobs over the next two years. That doesn't sound too bad. Houston home sales and prices continue to drop. Some people in Houston want some infrastructe expenditure to upgrade the power grid. I hope this gets off the ground.

I think this is a good example to use when I describe firms in the same industry with different business models. I often lack knowledge of real life examples of this. Pepsi is buying up their bottlers, while Coke chooses not to.

There was a lot of talk, recently, about Obama's high-speed rail plans. I've gotta say, I like the infrastructure spending, but I didn't really expect this in Obama's first 100 days. I expected a more along the lines of smart grids and high-speed internet access. I'm not sure how essential high-speed trains are, but I admit having realistic rail options would be nice. And, hey, maybe they'll have wireless internet access on them, too. If I could jump on a train and go from Houston to Chicago or New York in 4-6 hours, that'd be nice. I don't think that's very realistic, though. I wonder how much tickets would be.