Modesty, Nobel Prize, AEA survey, and salaries.

Gilles Saint-Paul tells us that economists should remain modest. After all, it's not our job to forecast crises. But, should we be able to recognize bubbles when they're happening?

The Nobel Prize in Economics announcement is coming soon! Who will it be? I note heavy favoritism in that list towards American economists. I don't know why people seem surprised when I say the top economists are in the United States.

Do you want to know what sorts of things economists agree upon? Try out this survey of AEA economists. There were another two surveys done before the last presidential election which also give insight. I really would have liked to have seen questions on single-payer health coverage and the auto industry, though.

How much can you make with different graduate degrees? Look at the data for starting and mid-career salaries for different majors. Economists have their median salaries double from starting to mid-career. Nice!

Good news on the recession, sugar, bubbles, and new homes.

A few pieces from Capital Gains and Games. Some thoughts on the unemployment numbers--getting worse slower isn't getting better. Still, I prefer getting worse slower. Still, the prospect that the unemployment rate won't hit 10% is great. The deficit would have been the same under Bush (or McCain) and is likely going to be less than originally forecast. So, it was largely unavoidable. Still, I hope that our money was put to good use.

A reduction in the supply of sugar is causing prices to increase. If there are profits to be made, then we'd expect other firms enter the market. Good sign for South American and African sugar farmers?

The Business Pundit speculates at the next possible bubble to burst. Gold seems a little far fetched to me, as I always thought of gold as a back-up place to store wealth, which means that it'd be more of an effect than a cause of speculation.

Felix Salmon reminds us that a home is not an investment as Krugman buys a new place. I've seen it argued that people thinking of homes as investments is a part of what caused the housing crisis.

Venezuela, China, and land grabbing

Venezuela's inflation (still) isn't doing so hot. No surprises there, right?

Though, China's doing well! (again, still) A lot of countries seem to want to piggy-back on China's growth. Still, no surprises. Investing in China yields better returns than investing in a country with negative growth.

Since bubbles have popped, investors are buying up land in developing countries. Housing isn't bringing in money anymore, so commodities and land is where the money is going. ... So, what happens to the developing countries when this new bubble pops?