Google, unemployment, sports, and loans

More data on Google! This from the World Bank.

Here's a chart showing the duration of unemployment, for the unemployed.

Some Houston sports hotshots (not those) talk about how their sports businesses are going.

Angry Bear has an interesting graph of the number of loans given by banks. I'd like to see the graph go back a few (maybe seven) more years.

Water, TARP, incentives, and Austin.

Here's an interesting article on the issue of water in Latin America.

Here's a look at TARP funds--they were actually used to make loans! Some were afraid this may not be the case for very much of the funds.

A TED talk (those things are great) by Dan Pink, former speechwriter for Al Gore. He talks about incentives, and how they can hurt. Also follow the links for similar talks by Dan Ariely.

Austin, TX looks like it's going to rebound this year, too. News for Texas looks relatively rosy.

Silver bullets, aid money, institutional reform, and Texas

Dennis Whittle tell us about the attraction and myth that is the developmental silver bullet.

Here's an interesting graphic on monetary flows of developmental aid. Aid in Israel has shrunk a lot, apparently.

Another of development: William Easterly reminds us that institutional reform may help developing nations, but we don't know what that means. I disagree that the term is meaningless, though. It helps us to narrow down what types of reforms might be most helpful, and then a more detailed analysis of the factors of institutional reform may help us pin down specific actions.

The economy in Texas is looking strong! Or, at least, looking to rebound soon. I don't expect commercial real estate construction to start up very strongly soon, though.

Krugman's history, South Africa, rational markets, HDMI cable, and crime trackers

Also from Newmark's Door, Krugman gets history wrong. Both people on the left and the right disagree with him, though I think that's kind of an empty statement.

Relatively good news for HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The infection rate has leveled off, with reductions in certain age groups. Still, South Africa has 5.5 million HIV-positive people.

Justin Fox gives a quick summary of the history of rational markets in the last 80 years, which is also a summary of his books.

Ezra Klein and Tyler Cowen seem to think that some traditional brick-and-mortar stores are not lowering their prices in their competitive markets. HDMI cable seems to be very expensive in stores, but online is available for next to nothing. Klein further comments that online shopping is a wealth transfer from those not comfortable with online shopping to those who are comfortable with online shopping. It seems to me that those comfortable with online shopping are in larger, more competitive markets. Brick-and-mortar stores cater to a different demographic than online stores. Moreover, I think that particularly in the case of 80% and 90+% discounts, online stores sell excess stock or used stock, rather than stock just recently received from a manufacturer. I admit these are conjectures, though.

ThinkMarkets provides some links to crime tracking websites, and neighborhood information websites.

Local stuff, business models, infrastructure

Unsurprisingly, the economy is the top concern for Houstonians. The Harris County Sheriff wants federal stimulus money for a helicopter, a surveillance van, eight machine guns for their boats, and some other stuff. Is that really necessary? Not only do machine guns not provide jobs, but who exactly are they going to shoot? Is that really in their jurisdiction? Will that keep Harris County safe? Galveston is considering bringing in gambling. I wonder what studies there are to show the negative effects of casinos for a neighborhood or area. I suppose Nevada does casinos pretty well. Houston's job losses increased, though unemployment held constant. Dr. Barton Smith gives some commentary, though to clarify one point--he projects Houston will lose 56,000 more jobs over the next two years. That doesn't sound too bad. Houston home sales and prices continue to drop. Some people in Houston want some infrastructe expenditure to upgrade the power grid. I hope this gets off the ground.

I think this is a good example to use when I describe firms in the same industry with different business models. I often lack knowledge of real life examples of this. Pepsi is buying up their bottlers, while Coke chooses not to.

There was a lot of talk, recently, about Obama's high-speed rail plans. I've gotta say, I like the infrastructure spending, but I didn't really expect this in Obama's first 100 days. I expected a more along the lines of smart grids and high-speed internet access. I'm not sure how essential high-speed trains are, but I admit having realistic rail options would be nice. And, hey, maybe they'll have wireless internet access on them, too. If I could jump on a train and go from Houston to Chicago or New York in 4-6 hours, that'd be nice. I don't think that's very realistic, though. I wonder how much tickets would be.

Health care, alternative energy, housing in Houston, and police

Companies are working harder than ever to ensure the health of their employees, it seems like.

Algae as an alternative energy. They apparently have a very low carbon footprint, and can be grown just about anywhere. Seems pretty good to me, and likely good for the city of Houston. Houston seems to have a number of routes to keep their title as the energy capital.

The price of homes per square foot went down 2% last year, in Houston in 2008. No surprise, really.

Another bit of Houston news: policemen get pulled off the streets to work on a backlog of work in internal affairs. Some worry that public safety will be affected. I'm not so sure that public safety will be drastically affected by a temporary shock. I'm assuming, of course, that once they're caught up with their work, the policemen should be able to go back to their normal duties.

Local stuff: UTMB, HOT lanes, and employment numbers

UT-Medical Branch is re-hiring 500 workers, showing the role of expectations and high risk. Due to the risks at the time, UTMB had to lay off the workers, but now the risk has apparently passed.

Houston might be converting many of its HOV lanes to HOT lanes. You can still drive on the lanes for free if you have a passenger, but you can now pay a toll to drive on the lane if you don't. Sounds good for economic efficiency, though I always figured the point of the lanes were to encourage people to carpool, save gas, and produce less smog. I guess we're less concerned about that, now.

Relatively speaking, Houston had pretty decent employment numbers in January.

Houston Rodeo, ESE, marginal taxes, protectionism, and popular kids

The Houston rodeo is feeling the effects of the recession.

There is now an Economics Search Engine. It sounds like a very useful thing, but I haven't tried it out yet. (I'm having trouble with the link provided, so maybe you'll also have better luck with this one)

Jonathan Chait has some fun with people who believe they'll be better off by keeping their incomes under $250k.

A couple of World Bankers worry that trade protectionism is rising. I hope any trend doesn't last. (Edit: another Voxeu.org article on a similar subject, but a bit more broad)

Popular kids make more money, says some research. An extra two percent for every extra friend. I wonder what Bill Gates would say about this.

Blogging, eating, and assorted stuff

Another interesting piece on blogging in economics from the Economist. Departments are typically measure prestige in their research output, but blogging reaches more people faster. Also, schools may have a comparative advantage in blogging rather than in research.

Should I be less amused when bankers are eating at McDonald's?

Contrary to what might be implied in Michael Mandel's article, Bloomberg reports that Texans will not be eating out less.

James Hamilton at Econbrowser attempts to put a trillion dollars in perspective for us. He reports that the IRS collected a trillion dollars in income taxes in 2006. So, imagine having to pay that much in income taxes.

I'm a sucker for silly. This post from the World Bank explains to us why we shouldn't fear ghosts. Thanks for clearing that up for us, Ryan Hahn. Ghostly revenge makes me feel safer.

The Secretary of Energy predicts rising demand for oil over the next two decades.

Houston is apparently the second largest home-building market in the nation. Katy's doing pretty well!

Cities, broadband, and globalization

This should surprise no one. As cities grow more dense and traffic gets worse, people turn to closer-to-home solutions for shopping. Sprawling cities get shopping centers, close to home, that support the majority of local shoppers' needs. It, of course, makes perfect sense. Some places even have everything self-contained in single, massive buildings--living space, work, and shopping all in one.

Have you ever been worried that municipal politicians are wasting your money? It happens at every level of government. How's that for dead weight loss?

Google talks about municipal broadband. As I said in my other blog, Houston's working on it! Apparently, other cities aren't having success, though.

PBS has a neat web page on globalization, though the economist in me always wants more data.

Police and Privacy

This is a good op/ed piece in the Houston Chronicle about better neighborhoods having better police enforcement.

Under a truly free market system, all policing would be handled by private entities, and the poor would suffer from little to no policing. Indeed, there used to be private militias. I think most Americans agree, though, that safety should be universal, and police forces should equally protect everyone. There are certainly economic arguments to be made to this effect as well, particularly concerning the necessity of private property. If wealthier areas would like more or better police enforcement, maybe they could push for higher taxes to pay for better police wages or more officers for all. That's essentially what we do with national security, isn't it?

EDIT: Another article about the lack of police officers and how it affects other parts of an economy.

An article in PC Mag about the anonymity (or lack thereof) of internet activity.

Of course, this is an issue outside the realm of PC Mag, as people are afraid of losing their privacy. Allow me to play the devil's advocate: what are people trying to hide? In an age of the freedom of information, we learn that a more informed citizen is a more powerful citizen (and, you can substitute "citizen" for "consumer" or any other type of person). What are people doing that will harm them if their secret is revealed?

Let us assume a world in which we have no (or minimal) privacy. Let's call this a Free Information World. Everyone would have access to your phone number, your address, your name, your current location, what television shows you like, and so on. You wouldn't be afraid of stalkers. Why is that? Everyone would be able to identify a stalker pretty easily. If your current location was always known, the resident of a house would know when you were at his window. Stalking would be much more difficult. Criminal activity in general would be more difficult--which means that there would be fewer criminals, and less to be afraid of. This, of course, requires world-wide freedom of information. The system would work if it was limited to a country only if immigrants and foreign visitors were also tracked.

This Free Information World possess some practical problems with money. We wouldn't want people to be able to access your bank accounts, regardless of whether or not people knew how much money you had (it's not like you can be physically robbed, if your current location is known, and the source of "new" money is known, and so on). We'd need some high-tech DNA sampling identification system (or maybe just an ID card that stays around with you, assuming its current location is always known as well, in the event the card is lost or mistakenly picked up by someone else, or whatever).

But, your money, like all of your possessions, could be considered a private property issue in the sense that everything you own must be protected, and inaccessible by others unless you give it to them (blackmail is also more difficult, and naughty secrets are harder to keep in this world). As long as these private property issues can be resolved, this world should be a functioning society.

The only other issue I can possibly imagine is prejudice. If people know your medical history, they may be less likely to want a long-lasting relationship with you. If they know your financial history, they may be less inclined to spend time with someone outside of his socioeconomic class. I answer: you would know ahead of time what people's prejudices were. Do you want to associate with a prejudiced person? Associating with someone is a mutual thing. Also, if you knew every one's problems, then you'd likely be more understanding with people in different situations. Sure, that person may have some issue you don't like, but are you so perfect? Everyone has their issues.

Regardless, this hypothetical world is also probably futuristic enough that maybe there'd be less prejudice in the world anyways. I can hope, right?

News round up

Microsoft has been trying to join powers with Yahoo for some time to try to beat market juggernaut Google--Microsoft apparently didn't offer Yahoo a good enough deal, which opened the door for Google to spread its influence even farther, and to partner with Yahoo. Interesting how joining with Google could possibly benefit both Yahoo and Google (at least, they can find an agreeable partnership for now).

More news about the economy doing better (rather than weakening, maybe stabilization); also economists seem to back up the Fed. Inflation is supposed to dip to 2.4% rather than 3.9%, which is a mixed sign. Before people start worrying too much (these numbers have been going up and down, mind you), keep in mind that the historical average is 3.42%--we're relatively close to that.

Lehman Bros reported their first negative quarter in its history, I believe, and people act like the world is ending. It likely doesn't warrant firings, but if that's what keeps the investors happy...

I always find strikes interesting, because of the economic situation that drives people to strike, and the economic consequences following the strike. Recently, in Spain, the shellfish industry is affected by striking lorry drivers.

Looks like the Fed is right to target inflation. Note Houston isn't too bad, according to the graphic. Beware Dallas.

HISD policy

According to this recent article, five years ago HISD started charging out-of-district students a tuition for enrolling in HISD schools. Did the decline in enrollment really surprise them? Due to the decline in enrollment, HISD started losing money, and they're now considering getting rid of the tuition to HISD's schools.

First of all, thank goodness they're lowering barriers to education. I highly suspect that when this policy was passed five years ago, long term economics benefits were not considered--that is, making education more affordable for children now will allow them to contribute more to the economy in the future. There are high pay-offs to lowering barriers to education, but they take a pretty long time to come. Still, as a general policy, charging such tuitions at the primary and secondary education levels is probably a bad idea.

The first issue that comes to mind, however, is that there may be free riders from other districts. That is, other districts may severely lessen funding to their educational programs, and lessen their taxes, if they know their students are going to HISD for their schooling. The possible effect? Cost of living in surrounding areas goes further down, those surrounding areas reap the benefits of higher population growth (and the longer term benefits of an education populace), and depending on the elasticity they may still come out ahead financially.

Then again, transportation is a big issue, unless the surrounding areas use their educational funding to transport their children across district lines.

Side notes: The article refers to HISD schools as "elite." Pardon my skepticism. And, when evaluating the unknowns of what will happen with the policy (the article mentions a board member worried that neighboring districts will send their problem children to HISD), why not just look at the numbers from recent history (five years prior)? Look at the number or percentage of problem children (however the board member my define that term; whatever she's worried about) before and after the previous policy change. There may be none, but if there is, find out how much those extra problem children cost the district, and do a basic cost-benefit analysis. I just hope they consider longer term factors as well.

Texas-related news

The Trans-Texas Corridor looks like it may get rerouted to go through Houston. As traffic is a big issue in Houston--and, a key part of our mayor's platform--I don't know if the benefit to the local market will outweigh the cost of traffic, but I'm hoping that it'd go through Grand Parkway rather than down 59 or 610.

I like the focus on commuter rails in Houston--surely a result of gas prices. It'd be nice to have a low energy-consumption society, as Paul Krugman depicts in a previously mentioned article, but I previously worried that Houston was going about this the wrong way. Dallas has a great system, with rails that parallel major highways, and according to this news report, Houston is looking to do the same. If this gets off the ground, I may not complain as much about a Trans-Texas Corridor through the city.

The IRF predicted that Houston, so far lightly hit by the credit crunch, will be hit much harder later in the year. The IRF is an essential resource in Houston, and it'd be nice if it was expanded.

Also, I would like to see statistics showing the efficacy of teacher bonus incentives that prompt such news articles regarding HISD as this.

Still, the Texas economy as a whole seems to be doing fairly decently. Fifth in the country? Not too bad. Besides that, Kiplinger says that Houston is the best city to live in the United States, with Austin also making the top 10.

In personal news, I recently got my BS in Economics, and am hoping to soon start graduate work. That's my excuse for not updating this blog very often. Maybe I'll ask Dr. Barton Smith of the IRF if I can work with him in his regional work.