Tyler Cowen thinks about the industry for forecasts. He makes me wonder how much private work he's done, as I think he seems to really miss the point of private economic modeling.
I must say--remember that a firm will often purchase a number of difference forecasts, which will disagree, as well as produce their own forecasts. Does one expect a firm to "believe" all of these forecasts? I don't think so. Would a firm cherry-pick one forecast that they choose to believe? Then, why purchase the others?
No, I think forecasts are more used to consider a range of possibilities. None is particularly more believable necessarily, but having a variety of forecasts gives us a starting point in talking about what may happen in the future and assumptions we may consider using.
Particularly in the light of the recent recession, there is a lot of distrust in models anyways, even if they're considered necessary.
In that vein, Free Exchange tells me about a new NBER paper actually taking a stab at the financial aspect of macroeconomic modeling.
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Monday, October 11, 2010
Congratulations!
Congratulations to the recent Nobel Prize winners in Economics! I know, it's not called that, but you know what I mean. There's a plethora of sources you can read to learn more about the winners.
Also, how about some other interesting articles? Monetary views, shale, the Great Depression, currency wars, and China/India/Brazilian growth. I don't really agree with that last one at all, but it's an interesting topic.
Enjoy!
Also, how about some other interesting articles? Monetary views, shale, the Great Depression, currency wars, and China/India/Brazilian growth. I don't really agree with that last one at all, but it's an interesting topic.
Enjoy!
Monday, June 14, 2010
Google, unemployment, sports, and loans
More data on Google! This from the World Bank.
Here's a chart showing the duration of unemployment, for the unemployed.
Some Houston sports hotshots (not those) talk about how their sports businesses are going.
Here's a chart showing the duration of unemployment, for the unemployed.
Some Houston sports hotshots (not those) talk about how their sports businesses are going.
Angry Bear has an interesting graph of the number of loans given by banks. I'd like to see the graph go back a few (maybe seven) more years.
Monday, May 24, 2010
HFT, education, pedigree, and health care
An interview about high frequency trading. Recently, I've been more and more interested in similar topics.
Tyler Cowen thinks about pedigree bias in economics. Economics professors in top schools are very likely to have come from top schools themselves.
SCSU Scholars talks about innovation in health care. I've mentioned this before--technological advances in health care are unlike others. The equipment hasn't gotten smaller or cheaper. There seems to be different incentives at play than economists typically assume. More, given two procedures that give similar results, a doctor will often choose the more expensive procedure, since he can charge more for it. Consumers, meanwhile, don't know their options.
Tyler Cowen thinks about pedigree bias in economics. Economics professors in top schools are very likely to have come from top schools themselves.
SCSU Scholars talks about innovation in health care. I've mentioned this before--technological advances in health care are unlike others. The equipment hasn't gotten smaller or cheaper. There seems to be different incentives at play than economists typically assume. More, given two procedures that give similar results, a doctor will often choose the more expensive procedure, since he can charge more for it. Consumers, meanwhile, don't know their options.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Job Advice, Saving Money, and the Planet
Jon Brooks gets a job! And this is how he did it. Job seeking advice is abundant this time of business cycle.
Also, remember that you need to save money for retirement. After you find a job, that's something you need to think about. That way, you can become the richest man in the world.
Also, remember that you need to save money for retirement. After you find a job, that's something you need to think about. That way, you can become the richest man in the world.
I can't say that I agree, but a couple of ecologists are worried about how our current economic model interacts with the world. I can't say I agree, but it's worth thinking about, certainly. Change isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Media woes
Did everyone forget that the current recession (or, at least, the remnants thereof) was originally started by a housing crisis and financial crisis? And that these crises started before the Obama administration? And that, at the time, many people said that unemployment may not return to normal levels until 2012? It seems disingenuous for news anchors to discuss when the Obama administration's use of the word 'inherit' just becomes an excuse. Must they contrive issues for the sake of seeming unbiased?
Also, does no one realize that banks make money, at least partially, by lending money? They don't need political pressure to continue lending, they have monetary incentives, and that's how they work. If they're not lending, there aren't enough monetary incentives for them to do so.
On the other hand, it seems like Republicans are claiming fiscal responsibility merely by disassociating themselves from Democrats, no matter what the issues actually are, and forgetting that the Bush administration ever happened. While the Obama administration is too classy to take advantage of Bush's unpopularity (a good move, in my opinion), the Democratic party leadership shouldn't let people forget so easily. So far, Republicans need to consider themselves lucky for getting off so easily.
Also, does no one realize that banks make money, at least partially, by lending money? They don't need political pressure to continue lending, they have monetary incentives, and that's how they work. If they're not lending, there aren't enough monetary incentives for them to do so.
On the other hand, it seems like Republicans are claiming fiscal responsibility merely by disassociating themselves from Democrats, no matter what the issues actually are, and forgetting that the Bush administration ever happened. While the Obama administration is too classy to take advantage of Bush's unpopularity (a good move, in my opinion), the Democratic party leadership shouldn't let people forget so easily. So far, Republicans need to consider themselves lucky for getting off so easily.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Recession, tax revenue, the Economist, and Monopoly.
Glenn Rudebusch, at the FRB San Francisco, answers five key questions. The financial crisis is over. The recession is most likely over. We won't return to normal employment for some time. Inflation will not be too high. The Fed has an exit strategy to undo its recession-fighting policy actions.
Federal revenue as a share of GDP is at its lowest point since 1950. It's an interesting graph, and I want to see how the percentage federal revenue has fluctuated with GDP growth and also with the change in tax rates. The top tax rate was slashed a lot in the 60s, but you don't see much of a change.
The Economist's forecast. No big surprises, I think. Still, an interesting read. I might expect a slower increase of the federal funds rate than they do, though.
Free Exchange on the history of Monopoly, Anti-Monopoly, and Hasbro.
Federal revenue as a share of GDP is at its lowest point since 1950. It's an interesting graph, and I want to see how the percentage federal revenue has fluctuated with GDP growth and also with the change in tax rates. The top tax rate was slashed a lot in the 60s, but you don't see much of a change.
The Economist's forecast. No big surprises, I think. Still, an interesting read. I might expect a slower increase of the federal funds rate than they do, though.
Free Exchange on the history of Monopoly, Anti-Monopoly, and Hasbro.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
EIA, map of job losses, new wave of research, and Caterpillar
Env-econ re: BCA vs EIA, OK?
This is a very interesting map of job losses and gains around the country since 2004. It'd be nice if it showed percentage loss/gain rather than net, but it's still illuminating, I think.
Will Google Wave change how research is done?
Caterpillar sees "encouraging signs" of economic recovery. The construction industry, many say, is a pretty good leading indicator.
This is a very interesting map of job losses and gains around the country since 2004. It'd be nice if it showed percentage loss/gain rather than net, but it's still illuminating, I think.
Will Google Wave change how research is done?
Caterpillar sees "encouraging signs" of economic recovery. The construction industry, many say, is a pretty good leading indicator.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Unemployment rates, Shiller on housing, urban data, and soccer.
The FRB Cleveland again, this time telling us about alternative unemployment rates.
Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, tells us about the housing market. Seems like people are more rosy now about their long term investment prospects.
Matthew Kahn talks about possibilities with urban data. If we could look at power bills, we could determine whether people have high-power consumption items, of if they're just being wasteful. I'm sure there might be a number of interesting uses of the data, if privacy issues could be resolved.
The economics of soccer. How do I get to do that?
Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, tells us about the housing market. Seems like people are more rosy now about their long term investment prospects.
Matthew Kahn talks about possibilities with urban data. If we could look at power bills, we could determine whether people have high-power consumption items, of if they're just being wasteful. I'm sure there might be a number of interesting uses of the data, if privacy issues could be resolved.
The economics of soccer. How do I get to do that?
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Dr. Doom/Roubini, public health care, mancession, and Cash for Clunkers.
Dr. Doom's at it again. I don't share his opinion about the growth "since March." I think the bottom was a bit too low, and at least some of the later stock growth was corrective.
The Boston Globe explains how a public health care option would work in pretty easy terms.
Free Exchange picks up Chris Swann, saying that men aren't necessarily the hardest hit during this recession.
The FRB Cleveland shows us some of the effects of the Cash for Clunkers program. I'd like to see their numbers on slightly longer-term effects.
The Boston Globe explains how a public health care option would work in pretty easy terms.
Free Exchange picks up Chris Swann, saying that men aren't necessarily the hardest hit during this recession.
The FRB Cleveland shows us some of the effects of the Cash for Clunkers program. I'd like to see their numbers on slightly longer-term effects.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Cap and trade, data, open journals, and more econblogs.
Krugman explains the basics of cap-and-trade.
Here's a handy little tool from IBM to facilitate data visualization. Looks neat!
And, if you didn't know about this before, but there's an open-access Economics journal. There look to be some really neat articles in there.
In the same vein, here's an econblog aggregator to keep up with research and academic blogs. Thanks to RePEc.
Here's a handy little tool from IBM to facilitate data visualization. Looks neat!
And, if you didn't know about this before, but there's an open-access Economics journal. There look to be some really neat articles in there.
In the same vein, here's an econblog aggregator to keep up with research and academic blogs. Thanks to RePEc.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Obama, unemployment, financial modelling, and a book
The New Yorker highlights Obama's economic staff. Romer, Summers, Orszag, Geithner, and Bernstein.
Also from the New Yorker, John Cassidy talks about the unemployment numbers and what we might expect in the future.
Mike Rorty makes a version of an argument that I made before. I'm eager to see what interesting papers will come out, though.
I recommend you read John Quiggin's book snippets. They're good reads.
Also from the New Yorker, John Cassidy talks about the unemployment numbers and what we might expect in the future.
Mike Rorty makes a version of an argument that I made before. I'm eager to see what interesting papers will come out, though.
I recommend you read John Quiggin's book snippets. They're good reads.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Recession, employment, risk modelling, and multipliers
The IMF says that things aren't so bad anymore! They're seemingly less bad than previously thought. They credit monetary and fiscal policy, apparently (I wonder how that'll go in the macro debates?). Feel free to check out the video of the press conference and the actual report.
Robert Reich makes sure we know what the employment numbers really mean.
The Baseline Scenario tells us about the problems of risk modelling. VaR = bad? I think people are being too harsh, though a company shouldn't use one model and nothing else to evaluate risk.
Via Thoma, Krugman talks about multipliers. He says 1.5 is a good estimate for right now.
Robert Reich makes sure we know what the employment numbers really mean.
The Baseline Scenario tells us about the problems of risk modelling. VaR = bad? I think people are being too harsh, though a company shouldn't use one model and nothing else to evaluate risk.
Via Thoma, Krugman talks about multipliers. He says 1.5 is a good estimate for right now.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
G-20, telecommunications, saltwater v freshwater, further than Krugman
Can you name all of the members of the G-20?
The Economist has a chart of cell phone users and internet users in developing countries. Internet access via mobile networks seems like an expensive prospect to me, for Africa.I suppose it might be cheaper than any other way of accessing the internet.
Urbanomics has a pretty good summary of the econoblogosphere saltwater versus freshwater macroeconomics debates. The conclusion: saltwater seems to be winning. I wonder what percentage of economists fall into each category, and how man "moderates" there are.
Paul Rosenberg goes further than Krugman in his discussion of the problems of macroeconomics.
The Economist has a chart of cell phone users and internet users in developing countries. Internet access via mobile networks seems like an expensive prospect to me, for Africa.I suppose it might be cheaper than any other way of accessing the internet.
Urbanomics has a pretty good summary of the econoblogosphere saltwater versus freshwater macroeconomics debates. The conclusion: saltwater seems to be winning. I wonder what percentage of economists fall into each category, and how man "moderates" there are.
Paul Rosenberg goes further than Krugman in his discussion of the problems of macroeconomics.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Modesty, Nobel Prize, AEA survey, and salaries.
Gilles Saint-Paul tells us that economists should remain modest. After all, it's not our job to forecast crises. But, should we be able to recognize bubbles when they're happening?
The Nobel Prize in Economics announcement is coming soon! Who will it be? I note heavy favoritism in that list towards American economists. I don't know why people seem surprised when I say the top economists are in the United States.
Do you want to know what sorts of things economists agree upon? Try out this survey of AEA economists. There were another two surveys done before the last presidential election which also give insight. I really would have liked to have seen questions on single-payer health coverage and the auto industry, though.
How much can you make with different graduate degrees? Look at the data for starting and mid-career salaries for different majors. Economists have their median salaries double from starting to mid-career. Nice!
The Nobel Prize in Economics announcement is coming soon! Who will it be? I note heavy favoritism in that list towards American economists. I don't know why people seem surprised when I say the top economists are in the United States.
Do you want to know what sorts of things economists agree upon? Try out this survey of AEA economists. There were another two surveys done before the last presidential election which also give insight. I really would have liked to have seen questions on single-payer health coverage and the auto industry, though.
How much can you make with different graduate degrees? Look at the data for starting and mid-career salaries for different majors. Economists have their median salaries double from starting to mid-career. Nice!
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Inflation, modern macro, monetary policy, and wages
Inflation is low, but still positive. There have been a number of forecasts saying that inflation will stay low for some time--seems like Austrian economists haven't been listening, though.
Robert Waldmann on modern macro.
Sumner on monetary policy. Could the Fed have acted better? Sumner is sometimes wordy, but always worth a read.
A bit on wages from the San Francisco Fed. Wage growth has been stagnating. Hopefully the rise in productivity will turn that around?
Robert Waldmann on modern macro.
Sumner on monetary policy. Could the Fed have acted better? Sumner is sometimes wordy, but always worth a read.
A bit on wages from the San Francisco Fed. Wage growth has been stagnating. Hopefully the rise in productivity will turn that around?
Monday, September 21, 2009
The state of macro, choice, Krugman, and five of the greatest equations in Economics
People have been talking about the state of macro for quite some time now. The recent crisis just underline the importance of the discussion.
Chris Blattman points us to an article that talks about inconsistency in choice.
It seems like Krugman inspires a lot of anger sometimes.
Tim Haab tells us about the five greatest equations in Economics (in his opinion). I think this might be more difficult for macro.
Chris Blattman points us to an article that talks about inconsistency in choice.
It seems like Krugman inspires a lot of anger sometimes.
Tim Haab tells us about the five greatest equations in Economics (in his opinion). I think this might be more difficult for macro.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Tires, Nobel Prize, macro debates, and solar cells.
Garth Brazelton defends the tire tax as a Pigouvian tax. I'd be interested to see if there was any data to show that Chinese tires are significantly less safe than American tires. Since they both presumably have to meet some sort of standard, should we just make tougher standards? If Chinese tires are less safe than American tires, would the tax not apply to safe Chinese tires, or would the tax be repealed when Chinese tire makers improved their tires?
Tyler Cowen starts thinking about the Nobel Prize for Economics. I'm eager to see everyone's thoughts.
Krugman talks about freshwater economists while David Warsh says there isn't as much vitriol as we might think. Warsh links us to an interesting paper that thinks about 1978 macro (link to Thoma).
Solar energy is apparently getting off to a slow start. Overinvestment due to a subsidy combined with a recession led to dropping prices, whic wasn't good for the industry. Does that mean we'll see solar energy picking up again as the world recovers? I've been seeing more articles about solar-powered things anyways, so maybe China is picking up a large degree of the slack from Spain.
Tyler Cowen starts thinking about the Nobel Prize for Economics. I'm eager to see everyone's thoughts.
Krugman talks about freshwater economists while David Warsh says there isn't as much vitriol as we might think. Warsh links us to an interesting paper that thinks about 1978 macro (link to Thoma).
Solar energy is apparently getting off to a slow start. Overinvestment due to a subsidy combined with a recession led to dropping prices, whic wasn't good for the industry. Does that mean we'll see solar energy picking up again as the world recovers? I've been seeing more articles about solar-powered things anyways, so maybe China is picking up a large degree of the slack from Spain.
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