Cell phones, optimism, health care systems, and latin america

SCSU also talks about the cell phone industry. Phone-carrier exclusive contracts are frustrating! I wonder when we'll move on from that.

Professor Emerson at Oregon State tells us that we have reason to be optimistic about the economy. I wonder what he thinks about the relationship to inflation.

The WSJ Numbers Guy tells us about the problems of ranking health care systems in different countries. I don't think geography should come into the mix, personally.

The IMF examines why latin america did better during this crisis than during past crises and also other emerging markets. I read a similar observation about Chile, before.

Health care, unemployment, and gifts

Small businesses pay more than large firms for the same health care policies. A quarter of the uninsured are employees in firms smaller than 25 workers.

More, rising unemployment means less health care coverage.

The Game Theorist tells us that gift giving is a bad idea. I'm not sure he's taken all of the externalities into account, though.

Krugman tells us that the health care bill will lean liberal because the facts do. I didn't know facts played such a large part of politics.

HFT, education, pedigree, and health care

An interview about high frequency trading. Recently, I've been more and more interested in similar topics.

Does education hurt your real income or help it? Data can be tricky.

Tyler Cowen thinks about pedigree bias in economics. Economics professors in top schools are very likely to have come from top schools themselves.

SCSU Scholars talks about innovation in health care. I've mentioned this before--technological advances in health care are unlike others. The equipment hasn't gotten smaller or cheaper. There seems to be different incentives at play than economists typically assume. More, given two procedures that give similar results, a doctor will often choose the more expensive procedure, since he can charge more for it. Consumers, meanwhile, don't know their options.

Dr. Doom/Roubini, public health care, mancession, and Cash for Clunkers.

Dr. Doom's at it again. I don't share his opinion about the growth "since March." I think the bottom was a bit too low, and at least some of the later stock growth was corrective.

The Boston Globe explains how a public health care option would work in pretty easy terms.

Free Exchange picks up Chris Swann, saying that men aren't necessarily the hardest hit during this recession.

The FRB Cleveland shows us some of the effects of the Cash for Clunkers program. I'd like to see their numbers on slightly longer-term effects.

Health care, global health care, job losses, love, and ham

Myths of health care reform. It seems like there are a lot of scare tactics.

While discussion on domestic health care policy is fierce, Ruth Levine reminds us about global health care policy.

Back here, job loss claims are slightly up, while the overall unemployment rate is down slightly. I'm hoping that we avoid 10%.

Love is worth over a quarter million dollars.

What would your bank do if you offered them wine and ham as collateral?

Subprime mortgages, the end of the recession, FDI, and health care

The Cleveland Fed presents us with ten myths about subprime mortgages.

Mark Thoma tells us when we'll know that the recession is over. I think there are two important themes: 1) it's tough to tell, and 2) it'll be pretty obvious when it's there.

Foreign investment in long-term US bonds are up. Although China is pulling out some of its money, the scare that everyone wants to pull out their money and ruin the US is unfounded. Sometimes, economics is telling people the obvious, when they want to believe the ludicrous.

The public health care option may be off the table. Back to high health care expenditures? Have congressional Republicans attempted to make any concessions at all? Bipartisanship seems to imply compromise.

Healthcare, good income news, good recession news, and blips.

Chris Dillow looks at the relationship between health care spending as a percentage of GDP and life expectancy. It's not the whole story, of course, but it does start an interesting discussion.

Real average hourly earnings is up a lot. Presumably, firms are holding on to qualified workers. We'll see how this measure holds out against the unemployment rate.

The chances of positive GDP growth are up! According to a Philly Fed survey. It's been a long recession.

Capacity utilization has a small up-blip, and industrial production is up. This, honestly, doesn't tell us much. If it continues up, that's a good sign, but this increase is probably too small to indicate anything.

Taxes and unemployment, the recession, health care, income, and advertising.

Krugman reports that there is no correlation between taxes and the unemployment rate. Looks like, if anything, there might be a negative correlation.

Though the specifics vary slightly, things are looking a little better now for Krugman and Hamilton.

Health care is a pretty tough issue, politically.

Political Calculations has data on how your income will increase each year.

Karl Smith continues discussion on the advertising industry. I think he's wrong when he says that people aren't easily swayed--though, they may not be so easily swayed as advertisers may think. I think people can be swayed to at least try a new cereal, even if it costs 20 cents more. They may not be swayed in buying a car. When you're talking about relatively cheap, quickly consumed goods, advertising can be powerful. Advertising may actually convince us to try a new restaurant, or a new brand of deodorant.

Oil and gas prices, health care, university productivity, and Houston power rates

James Hamilton takes a look at oil and natural gas prices. Something has got to give.

PBS has a Frontline report comparing the health programs in five capitalist democracies around the world. Paul Krugman explains why health care can't be solved by the free market. Seems to me that health insurance suffers the tragedy of the commons.

Catherine Rampell at Economix reports on a measure of productivity of universities.

Houstonians: TXU is lowering their rates. They may still not be the lowest for you, but keep an eye out! How's that for price fluctuation?

Healthcare, financial crisis, stimulus, and jobs.

Instead of the UK and Canada, Jonathan Cohn compares our future healthcare system to France and the Netherlands--whose plans he says is actually more similar to our proposed plans. It's a worthwhile read, I think.

Justin Fox points to an investment banker who says that the fault of the financial crisis should fall onto the people who bought toxic assets, not the people who created them. They should never believe that you can make a return on a riskless security. I still think there were many people at fault--after all, the true risk was not properly assessed by ratings agencies.

The French think they've done fiscal stimulus better than the Americans. Could be. Certainly, our more "free" system carries with it more risk and uncertainty. It's harder to get effective government action done here.

Catherine Rampell at Economix points out that the problem with the job market is a hiring slowdown, not layoffs.

Bernanke, job growth, healthcare, and fairness

FreeExchange voices their support of Bernanke. I think there hasn't been enough air time given to exactly what he has done and how it has helped the economy in the past year. In a similar vein, the NY Fed has provided a timeline of the financial crisis.

Michael Mandel reports on job growth over the past ten years. The graphs certainly do highlight the stark picture. Outside of healthcare, education, and the government, no sector has grown. Wow.

Donald Marron says that health is an R&D problem. There are a variety of problems with the current system, and a variety of solutions, and we're not sure how effective each solution would be. Marron seems to think we should take baby steps, and evaluate the progress of solutions as we go. An economist who wants more data? Shocking.

Fairness in economics. National economic policy isn't based solely on economic principles, nor are traditional mathematic economic principles the only factors that affect the economy. How people feel about their individual situations also affects their economic behaviors, including how fair they feel they are being treated. In short, we should take some lessons from sociology and psychology. Of course, this harkens back to a famous Keynes quote:

"The study of economics does not seem to require any specialized gifts of an unusually high order. Is it not, intellectually regarded, a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy or pure science? An easy subject at which few excel! The paradox finds its explanation, perhaps, in that the master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular in terms of the general and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature of his institutions must lie entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood; as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near to earth as a politician."

A round on healthcare

In a piece of news that no doubt highlights the need for healthcare reform, healthcare costs are expected to jump 9% for companies in 2010. More on healthcare: an interesting note in the comments section at Angry Bear on Singapore. And, some thoughts on different plans, with links to more information, from ataxingmatter. E.J. Dionne at the Washington Post would prefer to have good rather than bipartisan reform. I was recently thinking about healthcare reform--Democrats (as well as many others, including health economists) claim that they can provide more care to more people while saving a lot of money. I'm not sure what problem the Republicans have with this. So I asked around, and the answer I got was the ideological problem against the concept of socialism. Not only does the argument not apply very well, but public investment hasn't been all that bad, historically. You'd think Republicans could back a single payer option considering all the horror stories of the current state of affairs, and the prospect of saving a lot of money.

Then again, I think it's mostly politics. Republicans can get some of what they want without giving up much political capital. On the other hand, Republicans need to get their names on some successful bills if they want to have a chance of winning back more seats in the future. If Democrats can claim to have fixed the system and saved a lot of money at the same time, what can Republicans run on?

Africa, college gards, unemployment and stocks, children, and cheap condos.

William Easterly challenges Sachs in development issues, pointing out problems with Sachs's arguments, and problems in aid money. I think Easterly's position is often overstated by others--Easterly doesn't think that we shouldn't provide aid to Africa, necessarily. Easterly, instead, recognizes that much aid to Africa is wasted, and helping Africa requires some non-monetary reform.

Mike Shedlock tells us how hard the job market is for new college graduates. This isn't anything new, I think, but it is important. We know the job market is bad, Mike just tells us that it's also bad for recent college grads.

Felix Salmon shows us that unemployment and stocks are more coincident than we may have thought. I'd like to see more historical data, though it'd be understandable for unemployment to be more coincident with large changes in stock markets, unemployment being a less sensitive indicator, and both potentially being affected by other economic phenomena. Still, I'm not sure I buy it. The decline in the stock market from 2007 - 2008 alone seems within normal fluctuations and doesn't quite justify the rising unemployment rate.

Nancy Folbre warns us that kids may be the most severely effected by the recession. Parents' job loss can lead to instability in the home, which hurts education and hurts physical health due to lower quality food.

The amazing Tata is making $8000 condos. I wonder if this sort of thing will catch on in other parts of the world, as land becomes more scarce. Certainly, I would think this sort of thing would be popular among college students.

Asia, law, international trade, and health care

Asian economies are supposed to be the first ones to recover. I suppose that's not a surprise--lesser developed countries tend to have a higher GDP growth level, so a global recession is less likely to keep their growth rates negative.

Economics is respected in law. James Kwak thinks maybe lawyers shouldn't stick so closely to economic principles, or at least they should recognize its shortcomings. I don't advocate as drastic a view as James Kwak puts forth, but I do think it's important for lawyers to understand the limitations of using the Hand formula and of traditional economic analysis.

Dani Rodrik thinks about which sorts of trade liberalization policies will have the greatest positive impact. He says that we should open agricultural trade and increase quotas for highly skilled foreign workers.

Apparently, we can pay for universal health care using sensible cost-cutting practices.

Credit rating, soda tax, education, and political definitions

Free Exchange wonders what we should do about credit rating agencies. Should we have more competition to ensure better, more reliable ratings? Or, will that cause people to just shop around for ratings?

Tim Haab talks about a soda tax, and quizzes us on it. Personally, I wouldn't mind swallowing the three cents per twelve ounces (pardon the pun).

Newmark's Door points to a paper that emphasizes the importance of education in helping low-wage workers. Really, this surprises no one, but it should continue to get airtime as long as there aren't many educational options to low-wage workers.

William Easterly tries to apply more broad definitions of "liberal" and "conservative" to US politics--definitions which hold more internationally. Really, I think this isn't important. In the US, "liberal" and "conservative" are more titles than descriptive adjectives. Though it's good to be aware of what the terms actually mean, it's also good to be aware that the real definitions don't apply.

Maternity leave, Jamaica, Zimbabwe, the world, Venezuela, and the US federal budget

The Economic Policy Institute points out that the United States is severely lacking in maternity leave benefits. I wonder how that affects our national birth rate.

I've heard a lot about problems in Jamaica recently--I was surprised, and I think this article reflects why I was surprised. Socialism doesn't work.

The IMF provides an update on Zimbabwe. As you might expect, things aren't going so well there.

Simon Johnson reminds us that the rest of the world matters, too. Since the US economy is 20-25% of world output, they have an impact on us.

Speaking of the rest of the world, there's apparently some research showing how Venezuela's Chavez has hurt his opposition. This isn't a surprise to those who have been following Venezuela, but it's nice to see the research.

Lastly, the Obama Administration takes a jab at trimming the federal budget.

Life expectancy, displaced auto workers, solar energy, and the Clark Medal

Having friends increases your life expectancy. I guess it's not much of a surprise, considering stress decreases your life expectancy. Parents don't have an effect. Sorry, mom.

Auto and manufacturing workers can get an accelerated bachelor's degree. This sort of thing should be much more common. Haven't we had a shortage of teachers, too? There are lots of places for these workers to go.

Texas State Senators have approved a $500 million solar energy bill. I'm glad to hear we're not just focusing on wind.

The John Bates Clark Medal gets awarded this Friday. Exciting!

Oil prices, health care

Mark Perry tells us that oil prices are going to stay low for quite some time. I'll admit that he also called oil prices going down about as low as they did, and I didn't think it'd be quite as extreme (if I recall correctly, the actual was somewhere very close to the average of our estimates), and I'll also admit that I don't consider myself an expert in the oil industry, but I don't see the cycle he mentions as everlasting. Eventually, I think oil will be priced out of or nearly out of the market. Since by all estimates there's a limited amount of oil in the world, and it's non-renewable, alternatives must eventually dominate.

Reinhardt gives a health care reform option, without being quite socialized. It seems to me that there are a number of feasible options, but the trick is finding any that are politically popular. I suppose it's all in bipartisanship and PR.

Tax on soda, fat, PUMA, broadband, solar power, and recession news.

A study shows that a tax on "sugary soft drinks" will result in health benefits regardless of how the tax revenue is used. $1.2 billion could be raised in tax revenue in New York alone, but I wonder how it'd impact the economy as a whole--I imagine the soft drink industry and the medical care industry would each take a hit.

A reduction of "brown fat" could make you more resistant to gaining weight and developing diabetes. Apparently, brown fat is what works to keep you warm when it's cold out.

The PUMA, a two-seater Segway, makes short commutes to work more feasible. During the modernization of Europe, people lived in smaller-sized communities as technology increased. I wonder if that'll happen again. Towers keep getting bigger and bigger, and land becomes more and more precious. In a similar vein, the FCC's $7.2 billion plan to expand broadband can serve to pick up the speed of commerce, and expand markets.

Here's a solar-powered city planned for Florida.

Jobless claims fell more than expected, and many retailers report disappointing sales numbers. Things aren't looking good yet.

Health care, alternative energy, housing in Houston, and police

Companies are working harder than ever to ensure the health of their employees, it seems like.

Algae as an alternative energy. They apparently have a very low carbon footprint, and can be grown just about anywhere. Seems pretty good to me, and likely good for the city of Houston. Houston seems to have a number of routes to keep their title as the energy capital.

The price of homes per square foot went down 2% last year, in Houston in 2008. No surprise, really.

Another bit of Houston news: policemen get pulled off the streets to work on a backlog of work in internal affairs. Some worry that public safety will be affected. I'm not so sure that public safety will be drastically affected by a temporary shock. I'm assuming, of course, that once they're caught up with their work, the policemen should be able to go back to their normal duties.