Recession, tax revenue, the Economist, and Monopoly.

Glenn Rudebusch, at the FRB San Francisco, answers five key questions. The financial crisis is over. The recession is most likely over. We won't return to normal employment for some time. Inflation will not be too high. The Fed has an exit strategy to undo its recession-fighting policy actions.

Federal revenue as a share of GDP is at its lowest point since 1950. It's an interesting graph, and I want to see how the percentage federal revenue has fluctuated with GDP growth and also with the change in tax rates. The top tax rate was slashed a lot in the 60s, but you don't see much of a change.

The Economist's forecast. No big surprises, I think. Still, an interesting read. I might expect a slower increase of the federal funds rate than they do, though.

Free Exchange on the history of Monopoly, Anti-Monopoly, and Hasbro.

Inflation, modern macro, monetary policy, and wages

Inflation is low, but still positive. There have been a number of forecasts saying that inflation will stay low for some time--seems like Austrian economists haven't been listening, though.

Robert Waldmann on modern macro.

Sumner on monetary policy. Could the Fed have acted better? Sumner is sometimes wordy, but always worth a read.

A bit on wages from the San Francisco Fed. Wage growth has been stagnating. Hopefully the rise in productivity will turn that around?

Solar power, education, inflation, and majors

China is really pushing the production of solar panels. Siemens has also invested a lot of money into solar power recently. I've heard people say that oil prices will only go up in the long term, but I wonder if energy prices will actually go down.

Some people talk about why the price of upper education has risen.

As the economy bottoms out, we look more towards inflation. With slow growth, I don't expect inflation to get out of control, though even if that were the case it seems to be a necessary condition for growth in this recovery period.

College students fret about their majors. I thought this has always been a problem for them, especially for liberal arts people.

Venezuela, China, and land grabbing

Venezuela's inflation (still) isn't doing so hot. No surprises there, right?

Though, China's doing well! (again, still) A lot of countries seem to want to piggy-back on China's growth. Still, no surprises. Investing in China yields better returns than investing in a country with negative growth.

Since bubbles have popped, investors are buying up land in developing countries. Housing isn't bringing in money anymore, so commodities and land is where the money is going. ... So, what happens to the developing countries when this new bubble pops?

Graphs, Krugman/DeLong, inflation, and psychology

The recession in graphs. Felix Salmon points us to a bunch of graphs comparing the current recession to previous recessions. It's nice to see all of these together.

Krugman thinks about some notes from DeLong. I think they're interesting reads, though a bit rough.

The Fed is not concerned about falling inflation due to too much slack in production. This seems like a very AD/AS argument, and one that supports the idea of a prolonged recovery. I wonder what they think about the possibility of dipping into another recession.

There's an argument for psychology to be as accurate a science as medicine. I can't say I'm surprised, though I think psychology gets a bad rap. The story here is that psychological correlation coefficients were considered weak, when values of .3 were given, when this is actually a stronger value than "good" values in medical experimentation.

Inflation, scalping, 100 resources, protectionism, and development

Free Exchange discusses the possibility of inflation as recovery comes. It seems to me that the argument is that once the recession starts to lessen, the effects of loose monetary policy will start to show, though I'm not sure why inflation will rear without the usual corresponding GDP growth. Typically, you'd think that banks spreading money around would boost GDP growth, and it'd be pretty hard to get around that.

Ticketmaster is trying to stop scalping, using paperless tickets.

Here are 100 useful resources.

Wow, this is pretty cool. The Global Trade Alert. It supposedly keeps track of all protectionist policies, worldwide.

Continuing on a previous story, Sachs v Easterly. Easterly seems to have the more nuanced position, while I feel Sachs is approaching the subject of aid money from a more political point of view. Specifically, Sachs is worried that an anti-aid position will lessen the amount of money that will go towards development goals. On the other hand, Easterly isn't against aid money, but sees it as ineffective due to problems in the field.

Michigan, foreign policy, Varian and Google, and food prices.

Might business be okay in Michigan? The Grand Rapids Press reports good news in Michigan for a machinery/furniture company, an AHL team, an advertising company, and a construction company. Michigan isn't all about cars--maybe some of those displaced auto workers will be able to find other work.

Obama makes the country a safer place, says National Security Advisor James Jones. New strategies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as strategically pulling troops out of Iraq are good policies, he reports, as opposed to Guantanamo, which created more enemies than were detained. He also says that North Korea isn't an immediate threat, and that Obama's "team of rivals" is working out well so far, with everyone being heard.

Wired highlights Varian and Google auctions. I've heard a lot about these auctions in the past year or two--maybe the idea is spreading? Hal Varian certainly has a cool job.

David Leonhardt shows us price changes in certain foods over time. Looks like healthy foods are getting relatively more expensive (though, fish and meat is doing okay!).

CPI, developing nations, marriage, and Wolfram Alpha

Matt Nolan tells us not to confuse CPI growth with inflation. CPI is a bad indicator of the magnitude of inflation--besides, they measure different things.

Here's a vox article on trade advice for developing nations during a recession. Avoid protectionist policies. Um, I think they need more help than that.

Spendthrifts tend to marry tightwads, which contributes to marital conflict. Does this mean that, on average, couples make pretty good savings decisions? And, with less variance than single people?

Wolfram Alpha provides a new way to search for information. This looks like a really neat system, actually. It gets released this month, so check back to see it in action!

Buy American, recession woes, wine, African buses, and NCAA basketball

An article from the Detroit Free Press explaining why "Buy American" sentiments are bad for the economy.

Is death a victim of the recession? Eight states are considering getting rid of the death penalty, due to cost.

The wine competition at the Houston Rodeo brought in much less money than last year for the winning wines. That's why we call them luxury goods! The money goes to fund Texas college scholarships, so there's yet another example of education getting tougher in a recession.

Cote D'Ivoire is now producing buses, aimed at Africans. African transportation systems are known for their terrible buses, so this is meant to fix that. The post I link to says, "Not only are better buses now rolling out onto the roads of western Africa, Cote D'Ivoire is becoming better because of its entrepreneurial drive." However, I wonder if that "entrepreneurial drive" was already there, but now there's enough capital or credit available to justify the venture.

I'm surprised by this article, warning the Fed to not be so expansionary. Really? I think most are agreed that recession-fighting is more important, right now, than inflation-fighting. After all, we're still concerned about whether or not our same jobs will still be around, as the middle class shrinks.

NCAA basketball teams tend to lose a lot of money, with the median team having net loses of over $850,000. I wonder what incentives there are for universities to hold on to get basketball teams, or to hold on to them if they have them.

2.79 Quintillion.

That's Zimbabwe's inflation rate. Yowza! That's 2,790,000,000,000,000,000%. I didn't even know what came after quadrillion! That's just a ludicrous number. I half expect the Cato Institute to update the page with, "Just kidding!" Oh, and the link goes to a new blog in the econoblogsphere, Crisis Talk. When they linked their source on the 29th, it was 10 quadrillion percent.

The WSJ shows that states in which housing prices have fallen are voting for Obama, and states in which housing prices have risen are voting for McCain. I wonder if the economy as a major issue drove states to vote for Obama, or if states predisposed to voting for McCain have more responsible lenders.

Robert Shiller at the NYT talks about Greenspan's self-admitted mistake. Though Greenspan says that their models did not predict the housing bubble, Shiller points out that people hinted at it, but the warnings were ignored. Contrary views are unpopular, and when you're a policy maker, you are less likely to want to risk your job with contrary views.

Mark Perry at Carpe Diem quotes an energy economist who claims that oil will go down to $20-25. It's around $66 now, and it was $140 not too long ago. I find it difficult to believe it will go down to $20.

Some recommended articles, not just about the financial crisis.

I'm not very familiar with Capital Chronicle, but they have an interesting article of some compiled for and against arguments of the original Paulson Plan. Though it failed, I think it's important to know why everyone wasn't gung ho about it.

While it didn't make huge news, the Fed pumped $630 billion dollars into the economy. Let's hope that has a positive effect and that it doesn't end up hurting the Fed.

A physicist makes the case for new models of economics, such as computer modeling as opposed to mathematical modeling.

You think you pay a lot in taxes? In the United States, taxes rates used to get above 90% for a pretty long time. Those weren't necessarily bad times, either.

Political Calculations points out that stocks are still doing okay--there hasn't been a collapse. We're not in panic mode, despite some pretty strong setbacks.

A look at price increases in New York City over the past 40 years. It seems quite interesting, at least. Prices for food went up less than I expected.

Professor Hal Varian makes the case that piracy doesn't kill an economy, it just requires different business models. Rather, he made the case four years ago but more people still need to know.

Dean Baker points out that the stock market is not the economy. A lot of people have been freaking out about stocks lately.

UPDATE: I have a bunch of these things, so there'll probably be more updates to this thread.

Steve Sailer tells why minority lending didn't contribute to this mess (I've heard people say such government regulations and pressure are the original source). He also provides some interesting background information.

And, another compilation of blurbs from pundits.

At Marginal Revolution, they have a lot of interesting commentary. These from Tyler Cowen: Best and Worse Case Scenarios, his summary on the crisis, he points out that the FDIC coming into the picture is a brilliant idea (one that should've been thought of earlier, maybe), and he's my original source of the minority lending issue. Oh, and he also points to a new blog by Chicago economist Casey Mulligan, with some interesting but wordy commentary. He could use some better formatting too.

News round up

Microsoft has been trying to join powers with Yahoo for some time to try to beat market juggernaut Google--Microsoft apparently didn't offer Yahoo a good enough deal, which opened the door for Google to spread its influence even farther, and to partner with Yahoo. Interesting how joining with Google could possibly benefit both Yahoo and Google (at least, they can find an agreeable partnership for now).

More news about the economy doing better (rather than weakening, maybe stabilization); also economists seem to back up the Fed. Inflation is supposed to dip to 2.4% rather than 3.9%, which is a mixed sign. Before people start worrying too much (these numbers have been going up and down, mind you), keep in mind that the historical average is 3.42%--we're relatively close to that.

Lehman Bros reported their first negative quarter in its history, I believe, and people act like the world is ending. It likely doesn't warrant firings, but if that's what keeps the investors happy...

I always find strikes interesting, because of the economic situation that drives people to strike, and the economic consequences following the strike. Recently, in Spain, the shellfish industry is affected by striking lorry drivers.

Looks like the Fed is right to target inflation. Note Houston isn't too bad, according to the graphic. Beware Dallas.