People have been talking about the state of macro for quite some time now. The recent crisis just underline the importance of the discussion.
Chris Blattman points us to an article that talks about inconsistency in choice.
It seems like Krugman inspires a lot of anger sometimes.
Tim Haab tells us about the five greatest equations in Economics (in his opinion). I think this might be more difficult for macro.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Why we don't care
Fine! I'll bite! William Easterly, we don't care about Afghanistan. It's not that Afghanistan doesn't deserve our care--it likely does. We're just tired.
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We just don't care.
Here's the short story: We're tired of it. We don't know anything about them, and they can't be helped anyways.
After the 9/11 attacks eight years, news for a long time covered the several Arab leads of the culprits. A lot of time and energy was invested in learning about the region, and we were bombarded with pundits, news, even movies trying to explain to us what things are like in the Middle East and how to better understand their mindsets. When we started war in Iraq and Afghanistan some time later, we were bombarded with nightly updates on the situation. Despite all of this, we have learned little, but it's a safe bet that the majority of Americans, asked to describe any of the involved countries or surrounding, would tell you that it's a war-torn place with no progress. Many, I'm sure, mix up Iran and Iraq. Many would lump all the "stans" together. Many would say that we're in (any of) those countries just for the oil. Pakistan isn't any better. What, specifically, is going on in Afghanistan? Few could say. It's just another one of those countries. Certainly, conflict in the Middle East has been going on for centuries.
What's more, we've been bombarded with this sort of thing for over eight years. Multiply information overload over eight years, and no one knows what's going on. How can we be expected to care anymore? Sure they need help--that's partially why we have troops there--but they're just like any other war-torn country that needs our help. We've been "trying to help" for over eight years, and what has come from it? Caring about Afghanistan specifically is a lot to ask.
Compare this with Africa. While parts of Africa are still affected by war, we're pretty insulated from it. There seems to be less war, confined to individual warlords who rape and pillage. That's all. The bigger problem in Africa is poverty, and being cut off from the rest of the world. You can't easily truck goods from sub-Saharan Africa to anywhere important like you can in the Middle East. Africans don't even have roads! Poverty is something we can try to help with. Fighting among your own people? That's your own problem.
The term "sub-Saharan Africa" is probably to specific a term to mean anything to most Americans, actually. Many probably don't even know what it means. Regardless, people have more recently seen progress in Africa. Maybe it can be saved! Jeff Sachs said so in a book! They have cell phones in Africa now, they've become tech-savvy! Angelina Jolie is adopting children from there and helping them, so they must be getting better!
Do you see the difference here? What does Afghanistan have going for it? We barely get photographs showing us how things are in the Middle East, much less any information. And, when we do, we certainly can't distinguish what country it's from (whereas Africa gets lumped into one big area deserving of our help). I'm sure there are other issues too. The significance of cultural differences, the bad stereotype of Arabs, and so on. I don't see Americans caring about Afghanistan any time soon without some large, unexpected shock.
Do you see, Dr. Easterly? Why we don't care about Afghanistan? We should, probably, but it's a really tough situation there, and we can't do anything about it.
View Larger Map
We just don't care.
Here's the short story: We're tired of it. We don't know anything about them, and they can't be helped anyways.
After the 9/11 attacks eight years, news for a long time covered the several Arab leads of the culprits. A lot of time and energy was invested in learning about the region, and we were bombarded with pundits, news, even movies trying to explain to us what things are like in the Middle East and how to better understand their mindsets. When we started war in Iraq and Afghanistan some time later, we were bombarded with nightly updates on the situation. Despite all of this, we have learned little, but it's a safe bet that the majority of Americans, asked to describe any of the involved countries or surrounding, would tell you that it's a war-torn place with no progress. Many, I'm sure, mix up Iran and Iraq. Many would lump all the "stans" together. Many would say that we're in (any of) those countries just for the oil. Pakistan isn't any better. What, specifically, is going on in Afghanistan? Few could say. It's just another one of those countries. Certainly, conflict in the Middle East has been going on for centuries.
What's more, we've been bombarded with this sort of thing for over eight years. Multiply information overload over eight years, and no one knows what's going on. How can we be expected to care anymore? Sure they need help--that's partially why we have troops there--but they're just like any other war-torn country that needs our help. We've been "trying to help" for over eight years, and what has come from it? Caring about Afghanistan specifically is a lot to ask.
Compare this with Africa. While parts of Africa are still affected by war, we're pretty insulated from it. There seems to be less war, confined to individual warlords who rape and pillage. That's all. The bigger problem in Africa is poverty, and being cut off from the rest of the world. You can't easily truck goods from sub-Saharan Africa to anywhere important like you can in the Middle East. Africans don't even have roads! Poverty is something we can try to help with. Fighting among your own people? That's your own problem.
The term "sub-Saharan Africa" is probably to specific a term to mean anything to most Americans, actually. Many probably don't even know what it means. Regardless, people have more recently seen progress in Africa. Maybe it can be saved! Jeff Sachs said so in a book! They have cell phones in Africa now, they've become tech-savvy! Angelina Jolie is adopting children from there and helping them, so they must be getting better!
Do you see the difference here? What does Afghanistan have going for it? We barely get photographs showing us how things are in the Middle East, much less any information. And, when we do, we certainly can't distinguish what country it's from (whereas Africa gets lumped into one big area deserving of our help). I'm sure there are other issues too. The significance of cultural differences, the bad stereotype of Arabs, and so on. I don't see Americans caring about Afghanistan any time soon without some large, unexpected shock.
Do you see, Dr. Easterly? Why we don't care about Afghanistan? We should, probably, but it's a really tough situation there, and we can't do anything about it.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Tires, Nobel Prize, macro debates, and solar cells.
Garth Brazelton defends the tire tax as a Pigouvian tax. I'd be interested to see if there was any data to show that Chinese tires are significantly less safe than American tires. Since they both presumably have to meet some sort of standard, should we just make tougher standards? If Chinese tires are less safe than American tires, would the tax not apply to safe Chinese tires, or would the tax be repealed when Chinese tire makers improved their tires?
Tyler Cowen starts thinking about the Nobel Prize for Economics. I'm eager to see everyone's thoughts.
Krugman talks about freshwater economists while David Warsh says there isn't as much vitriol as we might think. Warsh links us to an interesting paper that thinks about 1978 macro (link to Thoma).
Solar energy is apparently getting off to a slow start. Overinvestment due to a subsidy combined with a recession led to dropping prices, whic wasn't good for the industry. Does that mean we'll see solar energy picking up again as the world recovers? I've been seeing more articles about solar-powered things anyways, so maybe China is picking up a large degree of the slack from Spain.
Tyler Cowen starts thinking about the Nobel Prize for Economics. I'm eager to see everyone's thoughts.
Krugman talks about freshwater economists while David Warsh says there isn't as much vitriol as we might think. Warsh links us to an interesting paper that thinks about 1978 macro (link to Thoma).
Solar energy is apparently getting off to a slow start. Overinvestment due to a subsidy combined with a recession led to dropping prices, whic wasn't good for the industry. Does that mean we'll see solar energy picking up again as the world recovers? I've been seeing more articles about solar-powered things anyways, so maybe China is picking up a large degree of the slack from Spain.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Happiness, universities, Africa, and income gaps
What makes you happy? And, how much is your happiness worth?
The success rate of universities and their prices are brought to question. Do "better" universities have more of an incentive to graduate their students (who might be in wealthier families or are well-connected)? James Hamilton pointed out that students seem to prefer prestigious research universities. Seems to me that the job market prefers students from prestigious research universities.
As much as Africa is progressing, they don't have very many trade links, and are disconnected from the global economy.
Some money news. Poverty is up, and income is down.
The success rate of universities and their prices are brought to question. Do "better" universities have more of an incentive to graduate their students (who might be in wealthier families or are well-connected)? James Hamilton pointed out that students seem to prefer prestigious research universities. Seems to me that the job market prefers students from prestigious research universities.
As much as Africa is progressing, they don't have very many trade links, and are disconnected from the global economy.
Some money news. Poverty is up, and income is down.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
A model, Africa, well-being, and teaching hours
Let's take a brief break from unemployment news! That stuff is depressing.
How about that supermodel who vowed to stay naked until USAID gets to starving children? I'm not sure what kind of incentive she's going for.
More on development--Africa isn't looking so bad, historically speaking. It's made large gains, though there's a lot more that needs to be made. While this is true and all, I think the reason this sort of thing doesn't get spread very much is for the fear that people will miss the point. Though aid might be working, Africa still needs a lot of help.
Via Thoma, Stiglitz tells us we need a better measure of well-being. Unfortunately, he doesn't provide much insight into the discussion. How about median debt as a percentage of income? Or average savings rate? Any ideas, Joe, are you just going to complain?
A chart of hours taught by teachers around the world. Our teachers are apparently putting in a lot of work!
How about that supermodel who vowed to stay naked until USAID gets to starving children? I'm not sure what kind of incentive she's going for.
More on development--Africa isn't looking so bad, historically speaking. It's made large gains, though there's a lot more that needs to be made. While this is true and all, I think the reason this sort of thing doesn't get spread very much is for the fear that people will miss the point. Though aid might be working, Africa still needs a lot of help.
Via Thoma, Stiglitz tells us we need a better measure of well-being. Unfortunately, he doesn't provide much insight into the discussion. How about median debt as a percentage of income? Or average savings rate? Any ideas, Joe, are you just going to complain?
A chart of hours taught by teachers around the world. Our teachers are apparently putting in a lot of work!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Job search, emotions, and graphs.
The average number of weeks in a job search has slightly dropped. 25 weeks is still six months, though. And, remember this is an average. 50% will find a job sooner, and 50% will find a job later.
Calculated Risks shows us some graphs on the projected unemployment rates compared with actual unemployment rates, and with the diffusion index, which roughly measures how widespread job losses or gains are. Things aren't great, but they're not as bad as they could be or have been.
Emotions and the economy. Interesting article. How much could smiling help the recession?
Job openings are at record lows, and the jobless rate by weeks unemployed. This needs to turn around, and fast! In most of the country it isn't getting worse, I suppose.
Calculated Risks shows us some graphs on the projected unemployment rates compared with actual unemployment rates, and with the diffusion index, which roughly measures how widespread job losses or gains are. Things aren't great, but they're not as bad as they could be or have been.
Emotions and the economy. Interesting article. How much could smiling help the recession?
Job openings are at record lows, and the jobless rate by weeks unemployed. This needs to turn around, and fast! In most of the country it isn't getting worse, I suppose.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Google,, unemployment and stocks, wages, and an interactive map
Google has more data to easily peruse through! Mmm, data...
Unemployment is up, but apparently the stock markets like it. 9.7%... after two months almost flat. Who knows where this is going? Will it hit 10%? Still, this is better than the 13% projected earlier in the year by some.
Average hourly wages are up again. Mind you that the unemployment rate for people with less education is higher than for people with more education. Also, retail isn't doing well, still. Lower wage people just can't find work, while experienced workers are being held on to.
Here's a neat interactive map showing foreclosure rates, unemployment rates, and household income. Data's good, but it's even better when it's easy to look through.
Unemployment is up, but apparently the stock markets like it. 9.7%... after two months almost flat. Who knows where this is going? Will it hit 10%? Still, this is better than the 13% projected earlier in the year by some.
Average hourly wages are up again. Mind you that the unemployment rate for people with less education is higher than for people with more education. Also, retail isn't doing well, still. Lower wage people just can't find work, while experienced workers are being held on to.
Here's a neat interactive map showing foreclosure rates, unemployment rates, and household income. Data's good, but it's even better when it's easy to look through.
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