Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Interesting news.

I think this is an interesting news bit that won't get enough air time, but the EU antitrust chief is apparently a fan of open standards. While he may push for open standards, the statement probably is not going to have much of an effect on actual business practices. Still, the more people who are aware of open options, the better.

I predicted before that the recession, if there was one, ended at least a month ago (not that we're recovering already, but we're probably in a trough). It's worth noting, though, that while businesses may be bouncing back or adjusting, the adjustment period is the part of the cycle that is most painful on the population. We'll feel the effects of the recession for maybe six to nine months after the recession is over (again, the numbers are my prediction). Some evidence is recently provided by Paul Krugman in his blog. And, some evidence for why I think we're in a trough rather than a recession (this is not nearly exhaustive): positive growth (more recently it's been adjusted up, too) and strong or seemingly unaffected production. And, according to recent news, the Fed and gold/commodity prices might agree with me. Note that I'm not saying the economy is doing well, just that the term 'recession' is not an accurate description of the current economy.

And, some interesting oil-related articles. Krugman, NYT, Mankiw, Forbes. I find that Forbes article particularly interesting because it mentions that Bernanke's implication that rates will rise in the future has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has lowered the cost of oil.

I thought this was interesting: Economists and their investments. They're apparently not bad.

Lastly, can I talk about economics and not politics? Yes, but it's more difficult when we're so close to elections. I'll just mention that I like Obama's economic advising staff, and it just got a boost. Obama should consider himself lucky, I think, and if this sort of thing was more publicized, Obama would have the edge on economic policy issues. Not that presidents have much control over that sort of thing, but it's one of those things people talk about.

Edit: Looks a little more definitive that Bernanke agrees with me.

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