Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Recession, employment, risk modelling, and multipliers

The IMF says that things aren't so bad anymore! They're seemingly less bad than previously thought. They credit monetary and fiscal policy, apparently (I wonder how that'll go in the macro debates?). Feel free to check out the video of the press conference and the actual report.

Robert Reich makes sure we know what the employment numbers really mean.

The Baseline Scenario tells us about the problems of risk modelling. VaR = bad? I think people are being too harsh, though a company shouldn't use one model and nothing else to evaluate risk.

Via Thoma, Krugman talks about multipliers. He says 1.5 is a good estimate for right now.

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